Future EV

  • Future EV is the amount of expected value of a hand on all future possible decisions and results.
    Future EV has to be considered to calculate the real expected value of a hand that has to face future bets and future betting rounds, with our without change to relative handstrength.

    Future EV can be negative, zero or positive.

    Future EV contains a lot of speculative elements, like implied odds and future fold equity. These sub terms are different for each card to come and thus very hard to calculate correctly.

    In order to calculate the real EV of a situation as close as possible with the least amount of guessing, you have to eliminate speculative factors like future EV and start where there is no future EV to be had. This means the all-in situation. This is why calculating EV and absolute ranges is easiest for river all-in situations. There are no future bets, nor future cards to come, nor future betting rounds. That means the future EV is zero and concepts like minimum defence frequency(1-a) can be correctly applied.

    As soon as future EV is becoming part of the EV calculation a concept like 1-a cannot be applied anymore without making an estimate on the amount of future EV of a hand.

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