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  • If we simplify your range to JJ only, he should cbet like 1/3 size 90% of the time, with all QQ+ and most AK combos. He should then 2barrel 1/3 size 80% of the time with all QQ+ and maybe half AK combos. And then he should jam river 1/3 size around 80% of the time with all QQ+ and some left AK. Walking backwards, river jam 1/3 is #18 QQ value + #4.5 AK bluff (1:5 odds for caller, 1:4 value:bluffs) Turn barrel 1/3 is #18 QQ value + #4.5 AK river bluffs + #5.5 AK turn bluffs Flop barrel 1/3 #18 + …

  • Yes you have enough equity if it were an all-in jam but you flop a bluffcatcher 90% of the time which realizes <1 and that makes it below 30% realized equity. I think JJ vs QQ+AK range would probably realize 25% with that much money left.

  • Quote: “not that much stuff for value (other than 87 BB doesn't really turn much value - 88 3bets pre or x/raises flop, maybe couple of 2P like 83s/82s possible, but unlikely) ” This is exactly the reason for overbetting turn. Do you not play turn overbets as default strategy? Or did you miss to do it here? If overbets are part of your game in this spot, and you didn't overbet here, it means you are representing a weak 8 or a 7 for value. Which means he could XR turn with A8, K8, maybe other 8x.…

  • Just fold pre, they do not 4b bluff there, against {QQ+,AK} it's just a fold, even if he add AQs it's a fold, you need him to have more than that and he doesn't. Or you need him to play badly postflop, like AK always 1/3 + XF safe turn, so you have easy call once + fold turn. That might be realistic. As played turn you bet specifically against AK. He has 6 outs, ~12%, so you bet 1/7 pot, giving him 12.5% pot odds. Well on 5 you split, so mabye a bit bigger.. but you have KK+ in range so that sho…

  • The 3b range is bit tight, but ok. The opening range and 3b range don't make too much sense for the equity calc; mainly vs the 4bet guy is important, and maybe 3way with the 3bettor who then calls. 76s is obviously retarded flat call and you should never do it. But the idea is, you rep KK+, and if your opponents are good enough, the should recognize this. So if they have AK they never jam pre, and if they have QQ they just check/fold all non-set boards. If that's true then 76s (and a bunch of ot…

  • I suck at making big folds but like come on we can't fold this seriously he can bluff he can have AA AK KQ JT at least sometimes and even against AQ have 4 outs!!

  • Quote from poop_scoop: “pre flop you jam AA along with like 2 bluff combos of A5s or AK. And fold everything else. ” Or you flat KK+ and a few other combos, not sure what, possibly 76s Don't think you can fold KK, and it's not great for jam, so that has to flat regardless. And only flatting KK isn't amazing.. I mean it performs fine with ~pot size left but you can probably add in some hands that can bluff vs AK/QQ postflop like 76s and then add in AA cause they don't have much value in a jam any…

  • There aren't many bluffs, like no offsuit hands. KTo not preflop open, AKo probably checks because of showdownvalue, so maybe ATo but maybe not. So you only see suited bluff hands, and it's not many. KTs, T9s, couple FDs. Might still be enough to call half pot though. I think the tight/solid regs just don't bluff river that much and I think you should fold, but call is fine, no worries.

  • You shouldn't bluff with hands that have EV as a check. AQ on the turn has showdown value, because you beat AT, maybe A4 A2, at the very least the same hand from him. So you should rather bluff KQ, which has about the same EV for a bluff, but less EV for a check-down. Otherwise good board for you too push through a lot, he has very few strong hands here, so good spot to bluff of a spot, just rather use weaker hands. (And preflop sizing is huge yeah what is that?)

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  • It's not a 4bp. It's a non-standard spot. Maybe a 3bp. Maybe something else, calling limp-reraise doesn't have name as far as I know. Anyway, he limp-reraises super small, so obviously a fish. Range is usually QQ+ and then a few random medium strong hands like 88 or 87s or KQ. Turn I think you have a fold.. well actually it's so small. I dunno, call is fine I guess. Just not sure you beat anything... but odds are good.. Tough one. River very similar. Actually he's betting a substantial amount no…

  • Flop bet 1/3 good, 1/3 possible. Vs flop XR you call of course, then turn jam on safe cards call and on wet cards it's interesting. It's possible his flop XR is quite tight and you don't really want to stack off even on safe boards. But that means he XR very little, which is good for you overall, just not good when he does it and you have KJ QJ JT stuff. Turn with Ax of heart you have the best hand sometimes and river check-check, that's why you should have a +EV call vs turn overbet. Like he ca…

  • bet small is good if he XR a lot it becomes not great, but you don't know that

  • Turn 1/3 is cool although pretty thin. But it's not like checking is better. If he doesn't jam AK pre he should call flop with 1 heart for sure, and possibly all of the AK. His river donk is strange anyhow, but I see now way he is bluffing here. Like what. 87s? Just fold.

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  • I'm not so sure he will raise river with Qx after you overbet turn. It's not like he can get value from anything. Also low stakes people aren't aggro, so probably just jam river. Turn I agree with everyone, not the best overbet.

  • Flop check is ok to mix in but of course betting is more standard. Turn jam only good if you think he can have QJ/JT as well, which at NL50 I doubt he would overbet that thinly. So call yeah. River you obviously are bluffcatching. I still doubt he goes thinly though with something like QQ KK here, even A5 A2 he might not jam. You can have AXhh too. His AQ AK don't bluff turn like this... So his value range is narrow. AJ fits perfectly but that's almost it. For bluffs, he could have any two reall…