16 nl : flopped boat vs a fish

    • 16 nl : flopped boat vs a fish

      Poker Stars, $0.08/$0.16 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $16.39 (102.4 bb)
      Hero (BB): $21.99 (137.4 bb)
      UTG: $19.82 (123.9 bb)
      MP: $17.12 (107 bb)
      CO: $16 (100 bb)
      BTN: $15.52 (97 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 3 3
      3 folds, BTN calls $0.16, SB completes, Hero raises to $0.64, BTN calls $0.48, SB folds

      Flop: ($1.44) 3 7 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.92, BTN calls $0.92

      Turn: ($3.28) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.24, BTN calls $2.24

      River: ($7.76) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $7.36, Hero raises to $18.19, BTN folds

      Results: $22.48 pot ($1.01 rake)
      Final Board: 3 7 8 7 2
      Hero mucked 3 3 and won $21.47 ($10.31 net)
      BTN mucked and lost (-$11.16 net)

      Villain is 40/10 over 40 hands , seems a typical fish with his limping in etc.

      His range is really wide and could be calling from flop onwards with 8x 7x and some suited connectors giving him OESD and gutshots. SHould i just be betting flop and going for value against his 7x 8x but worried he's not going to call a decent sized triple barrel. Checking gave him the chance to bluff his missed draws but also the chance to just check behind and lose value against the parts of his range that would call a bet. Did I just catch a does of FPS here and got lucky with his bluff?
    • You didn't flop a boat, you did flop a set ;D

      If anything, i'm a little unsure about the ISO pre, i'd like it that much more to do that with better potential equity hands (high cards, SCs etc) as only potential those smallest pockets have are only to flop a 2 outer set, other than that there will be overcards most of the time, i do agree that we would want to take it down pre, but it's such a weak hand to go post flop OOP with, is it really worth it..? (could be wrong here, asking for my own knowledge-sake :) :)

      I'd guess turn 7 should hit vilains range a bit more than yours, therefore i think checking the turn already is an option as well...
    • jseiff wrote:

      8x and 7x is more than 2 times of all OESDs, if we assume J8+ and J7+
      That means, if you bet half his bluff as triple barrel you got better EV.
      Don't think that this is the case as 65s/T9s should most likely be open-raising not limping, same could be said AT LEAST about T9o (then limping only 65o as worst hands to choose from also makes it a questionable strategy), i'd say the same about 7x 8x, so don't think it's that clear that vilain should have 2x more pairs than draws or anything of that sort.

      Also what that second part of your thought means - "If you bet half his bluff as triple barrel you got better EV" (if anything, you yourself mention it as the very first thing that vilain is unlikely to be folding 8x and 7x, if anything i would still add that 8x and 7x by the river are way different in strengh)...?
    • iso raise with 33 is quite the move :D

      Postflop likely better to go for an all-in sizing plan like pot-pot-jam than betting 2/3 twice and having river double pot size left.

      Turn you could check if he's a bit aggro. Straight draws and 8x can bet there, and you get a nice XR in that jams river easily. He can also have some weak QJ KJ KQ AT hands that either bluff or check, both of which are better than you 2barreling and he folds. But 2barrel also fine, esp if he won't bet straight draws / 8x himself.

      River, he will never bet 8x when you check, unless he's crazy aggro. So you miss a ton of value from that. You gain value from all bluffs if you check. But I think limpers on average are a bit more passive, so you might see check backs from a lot of busted draws. I'd just overbet it 120%.
    • i was working on the premise that blind vs btn open its better to 3bet rather than set mine as btn range will be wide and weak so unlikely to hit strong enough hand to make set mining profitable. with him limping and SB completing it thought that there ranges would be even wider and weaker that i'd be more likely just to take it down preflop. Is the river the best street to overbet? with the 7c on the turn 7x and club flush draws could call/raise an overbet is 4$ a better turn size to leave roughly a pot size bet on the river