COvSB 3bet pot scenarios

    • COvSB 3bet pot scenarios

      Hello guys,

      have another hand to share :) Playing 6-max anonymous table 5-handed on MG. HERO is CO with J :club: T :club: . 135BB effective.

      UT folds
      MP folds
      CO HERO raises to 3BB
      BU folds
      SB raises to 10BB
      BB folds
      CO HERO calls.

      FLOP (21BB) : Q :diamond: 2 :heart: K :club: . SB bets 10.5BB, CO HERO calls.
      TURN (42BB) : Q :heart: . SB bets 26BB, CO HERO calls.
      RIVER (94BB) : 9 :heart: . SB checks, CO HERO shoves, SB folds.

      So.... On surface this might seem standard, but i have a few questions about the hand:

      1) I don't think people will check any strong made hands on the river, but in theory wouldn't it be correct to check 100% of the range as SB on the river? WIth KK/QQ/KQ (10 combos) the board is so blocked out for CO to have a strong enough (KK doesn't block Qx, but you get the idea) hand to call down (CO will have like 3 flush combos (A :heart: J :heart: , A :heart: T :heart: , J :heart: T :heart: ) and 4xJTs, but that's still like 7-8 combos at most and those are just bluff catchers vs SBs range, that triple barrels for value), SB will also have a couple combos of flushes, which seems ok to jam (or rather not too thin to jam for value if we look at it that way), while anything worse, like JTs, or naked Qx, i don't think can profitably shove for value. < --- Your thoughts on this? I'm i off in any way?
      2) As played PRE/FLOP/TURN seems STD, given that we are in position and are a bit deeper, but i wasn't sure are there enough hands that will actually be worse, that plays this way, but pays me off on such run out? (Pretty much a follow up to what i said in 1) )
      3) Say SB had jammed river instead of checking - a) what's the weakest that SB is shoving for value here - players tendencies vs theory? b) what if anything is SB jamming as a bluff - players tendencies (i don't think people would bluff here often if at all) vs theory (what bluffs makes sense for SB if any? For me bluffing this river seems suicidal and I can only come up with 3x A :heart: Jx that seems ok hand to go for it, but that's just a couple of combos, if SB even has it...) ?

      A lot of stuff here, but hopefully we'll be able to digest it. Thank you :)
    • Hi, I´m not sure if we can call turn. We have 28% pot odds and can be drawy dead. Besides that, a 9h or any A can be bad outs. So we have few outs to call for 28% pot odds. I fold turn.
      River I think villain would shove FHs and flushes for value and AJ, AT for bluff. Straights IMO he can check/call or shove. It depends on you. Would you call a shove with QX? Bluff catchers like AA and AK, I think he can ch/call with hearts and check/fold without hearts.
    • 1) if I understood you correctly, you are thinking the other way around. If SB range is so strong OTR then he should bet more, not less. It doesn't work like "SB is so strong that CO has trouble having good hands therefore SB should check a lot". The reason it doesn't work like that is because the correct adjustment for CO is simply to check back everytime, which means the EV for SB to check nut hands is terrible. The correct answer to that scenario (SB lots of nut hands, CO not so much) is for SB to value bet big size with his strong hands and add the proper amount of bluffs, even if that means turning hands with some SD value into a bluff. Anyway, I don't think your assessment is very good, yes, SB has some nuts (FH up to 10 but not everyone 3bets KQo SBvCO, JTs, some hearts), but it's not that huge amount, there some situations a lot worse than this, where a player has 16 combos of nutstraight and the other player doesn't.

      One aditional thing, what it does make sense is for SB to check turn close to 100%, given how much the Q improves the CO.

      2) OTT yes your outs are not amazing (the A improves villain AQ/AA, you could be dead already), but you should have close to the 28% realizable equity, but it's certaintely close, it could be a fold for 100bbs stacks.

      3) worse hand SB jams for value I'd say AQ. If CO folds KJs/KTs then it might be too thin. As for bluffs some AT/AJ make sense, but yeah, doesn't seem like a great spot to bluff. At the end of this decided to check a Solver, AQ is indifferent for value jamming, so worst clear value jam is a flush. Bluffs are some combos of AJo and A2s. CO calls Qx and flush. KJs/KTs folds.