GTO Stuff Attempt Or Suicide?

    • GTO Stuff Attempt Or Suicide?

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      This is a pretty sick one overall, could be straight up spew, but clearly not sure about my line still, so would appreciate feedback greatly!

      Playing regular 10NL 6-max on MG. HERO is BU with 6 :club: 5 :club: . 116BBs effective with villain, on which i had no info on up to the point of the hand.

      UT folds
      MP raises to 3BB
      CO calls
      BU HERO calls
      SB raises to 12BB
      BB folds
      MP calls
      CO calls
      BU HERO calls.
      FLOP (49BB) : A :heart: Q :club: 8 :diamond: . SB checks, MP checks, CO checks, BU HERO checks.
      TURN (49BB) : 7 :diamond: . SB bets 25BB, MP folds, CO folds, BU HERO jams for 79BB more, SB calls.

      Linecheck?

      So ok, at first let me explain myself.... :D

      Preflop i suppose i could squeeze, but don't like that option much, flatting seems the best play, later just too good (odds + closing action + position) to fold vs ISO. Flop don't think i have any FE 4 ways so checking is best IMO. Yet on turn this is where it gets interesting - i don't think that villain here would have 100% flop check range, if anything, i could believe some hands looking to maybe go for x/r, but overall IMO SB will be betting flop more than not with strongest hands, so once action goes like this i think SB's range is really capped, so even though i don't think he will be bet/folding stuff like AK, at the same time i don't think he can call with anything weaker than Ax. Also even though my hand might look like a draw (heard this thought from another person, not sure how true it is) i will absolutely have at least 77/A7s/87s that will take this line, so this seemed like a decent spot to make a move.

      I'm done, ready for execution :D Thank you for responses :)

      Display Spoiler
      just imagine the feeling of seeing villain calling the jam and turning over T 9 :thumbsup:
    • Without fish in the blinds I would squeeze or fold against MP+CO preflop. Your hand has reverse implied issues hitting worse straights and trips+flushes against wider ranges. Cleaning outs is helpful.

      As played SB should be checking some thin squeezes that have SD-value for sure, as the defend ranges should not have a lot of strong pot-equity hands in this spot. So seeing SB delay to the turn could still mean a pretty strong range with some polar elements. Raising OTT just isolates against that and I don't think you have the FE to make up what you lack in Pot-Equity, if the turn would have been 7c I think the jam would be a lot more +EV to the stronger pot-equity of your holding.
    • I'm not sure, but i suppose villain is betting AK more than not on the flop, maybe plays AJ this way, but that's about only Ax hand that i'm IMO facing here (could be other random squeezes, but wouldn't give it much weight for smallish squeeze size and flop skip), however, i don't think i'd be able to fold Ax hands, yet everything else, KK and worse, also any other combos (KJ KT JT maybe even KQ) just can't continue and given that my hand has no showdown value, i suppose any FE i gain is a win, it's just that i would need villain not just to fold, but fold ENOUGH % and that might just not be the case, given what range SB is playing this way. Ingame looked like a decent spot, now (after seeing all the feedback) not so much, but yet not entirely convinced that my play was bad, still, what matters is if it's +EV or not...

      Appreciate any further feedback! :)