[SRP, MPvsBB] QJ on QJ9xx - ValueBet OTR?

    • [SRP, MPvsBB] QJ on QJ9xx - ValueBet OTR?



      Villain unknown, seems 2 b on the nitty side.
      He will mostly call every Tx on Flop and Turn.
      But is there any better hand than mine, that will fold against a river-bet?
      Set surely not!
      Is there any worse hand to call?
      Maybe Q9s, J9s, not much of combos!
      What do you think?
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    • Hey!

      1) Villain is not full-stacked, so probably weaker player
      2) Flop and turn IMO clear value-bets, had you got raised, it might change things, but as played i do like you bigger sizings, so far so good :D
      3) Since by betting the previous streets, you're making villain's range shrink (he folds so part of his range on flop, some part on turn...) on the river it's starting to get thinner, but IMO you could be looking to maybe x/back 1 pair type of hands, as those are really thin bets (even though vs crazy fish those could still be bet as thin valuebet sometimes), this hand IMO is still too strong to just x/back the river with, so i'd still go for thin value, but not with with a large size, so something like 1/2 seems just fine.
      4) Since villain probably raises most of his straights somewhere along the way, i wouldn't give him all the combos of it, therefore on the river you should still have >50% (technically even more needed, but that depends on how much raise% you'd face) equity to have a value-bet, at the same time, as you said, i don't see a better hand that you can expect to fold, so there's no fold-equity, but since, as mentioned, you should have >50% even on the river when called, it's clearly that you're betting for value, not as a bluff.
      5) Don't think villain has any kind of set - don't see villain calling flop with 44/55, JJ/QQ 3bets pre like 99% and also those are blocked to 1 combo possible, 99 are possible, but again 3 combos at most, might 3bet pre, might raise along the way, so won't give it all 3 as well.
      6) There are certainly hands you'd get value from, but as i said, villain's range on the river is quite smaller, so won't go BIG and ALSO i don't think he would x/r river as a bluff or anything weaker for value, so IMO it's a bet/fold spot for ya - only possible draw on the flop is Tx, but most of them should have a pair (if not a straight already) with them OR just straight up pairs like Jx, Qx and i just don't see villain turning that into a bluff as a x/r.
      7) Given all of that, as i said, since it's getting thin, i wouldn't bet river big - he can fold hands that you want to continue, while most of the hands that actually continue as a x/r has you beat, so IMO it's a bet/fold spot on the river, but before that you definetely should have a value-bet.
    • I would expect a weak player to call some 1pairs on the river as well, so you have a value spot. To exploit you could use a size on the smaller side to ensure you get called by enough worse made hands. Weak player will never turn a hand into the bluff on a sizing read. So you can rangesplit the fish here with smart sizing on the river, that he is most likely to only raise stronger hands and call all weaker hands.