Calldown With Top 2

    • Calldown With Top 2

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on MG, 5-handed for now as MP is waiting for BB to post. HERO is SB with K :spade: Q :heart: , 100BBs effective.

      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB HERO raises to 3BB
      BB calls.

      FLOP (6BB) : K :club: 9 :club: 4 :heart: . SB HERO bets 4BB, BB calls.
      TURN (14BB) : Q :diamond: . SB HERO bets 10BB, BB raises to 26BB, SB HERO calls.
      RIVER (66BB) : 3 :spade: . SB HERO checks, BB bets 67BB and is all in, SB HERO calls.

      Linecheck?

      Thank you for responses :)
    • EDIT : forgot to mention, that playing vs good / aggressive (that's the same thing, right? :D ) regular, if that changes things in any way :/

      I expect him to raise 44 most of the time on the flop, but yes, JT is the one hand that i would be worried about, but it's again the matter of me potentially folding EVERYTHING that's not JT on my own end...

      Also ingame for some reason i felt his sizing, particularly for turn is kinda interesting, any thoughts on it?

      Finally, i thought that there's a very small chance that villain actually could play worse 2P for value, but that's not that likely.
    • Yeah I think that he would raise some 44 on the flop, but same goes with K9. He isnt raising/jamming worse 2p imo and they are little:

      K9 #6
      K4s #1
      Q9o #6
      Q4s #2

      Those are his possible raising combos but I wouldnt raise Qx 2p frequently and jamming 2p IP on the river seems pretty optimistic. He could bluff some FDs IP, but I think calling down is more standard.

      His turnsizing is okay, I play 2.8x IP and 3.3x OOP, he has potsize jam setup.
      "Spiele nl100/200/500 Zoom agressives Konzept"
    • Damn....

      To be honest, i won the hand vs Jc5c, but still wasn't sure about my play :

      - on one hand, WOULD HATE to give aggressive competition money away in ANY line ;

      - on the other, yeah, i agree that very few bluffs are actually possible (and that would make me bluffcatching -EV overall) and even those have decent equity, at least on the turn, but then even calling the turn sounds so uncomfortable - 4 outs with one card to come, that's too little for it to be a factor. We can pretty much only hope that unimproved it would go x/x, but if that's not the case (THIS IS A BIG ONE I THINK, AGGRESSIVE COMPETITION WON'T GIVE UP ON THEIR BLUFFS) and we don't have a clear way to win the pot (either villain already has us beat / either villain would catch up by the river / either villain would actually bluff us off the best hand) maybe just bet/folding turn is an option???

      I know it's pretty extreme and also, this sound just attrocious with say sets, but their hand strenght is pretty much the same (ok, technically sets beat 44, but there's just so little 44 that gets beyond the flop in that line), so what's our options...?

      Once again, a very uncomfortable situation, is there anything else we can do or what can we take away from the hand ourselves?

      Thank you!!! :)
    • Line is fine and river spot just sucks.

      It's mostly JT for value and mostly Jx/Tx hands as bluff, like J9 T9, or Jxcc Txcc, maybe AJ AT. Does he bluff jam enough on the river? It's hard to say. I think turn raise + jam river is generally not bluffed much. But his potential bluff hands are a lot, so that helps you. He only needs to bluff 10% of the time with them to have enough bluffs, and 10% isn't a lot of the time to be like "ehh I'll go for it".

      Stats/reads would be nice, without any on NL50 Microgaming, hmm, again not sure. I think NL50 it's not bluffed much. But I think Microgaming is bluffy. So again I'm torn. Both river plays seems fine.
    • lnternet wrote:

      He only needs to bluff 10% of the time with them to have enough bluffs, and 10% isn't a lot of the time to be like "ehh I'll go for it".
      Have a spare moment to explain the math here, please? :)

      lnternet wrote:

      Stats/reads would be nice, without any on NL50 Microgaming, hmm, again not sure. I think NL50 it's not bluffed much. But I think Microgaming is bluffy. So again I'm torn. Both river plays seems fine
      No DEAD reads, but overall regs aren't aftraid to just go for it. Most 50NL regs, i've seen, are mixing 100NL (not there yet myself, but have my own ways to try to get reads/information), which for me gives even more reason to think that they know what they do and that aggression is the way to go, and firing up 20NL tables only because action higher is not always stable. Anyways, my point here is that, even though i ONLY play here (can't compare objectively) regs do not lack (competence) aggression to say the least :D
    • motiejus wrote:

      lnternet wrote:

      He only needs to bluff 10% of the time with them to have enough bluffs, and 10% isn't a lot of the time to be like "ehh I'll go for it".
      Have a spare moment to explain the math here, please? :)

      lnternet wrote:

      Stats/reads would be nice, without any on NL50 Microgaming, hmm, again not sure. I think NL50 it's not bluffed much. But I think Microgaming is bluffy. So again I'm torn. Both river plays seems fine
      No DEAD reads, but overall regs aren't aftraid to just go for it, especially since 50NL ones are pretty much mixing 100NL too and firing up 20NL tables only because of lack of action i suppose. Anyways, my point here is that, even though i ONLY play here (can't compare objectively) regs do not lack (competence) aggression to say the least :D
      The math is easy. Lets say he has #16 value combos on the river, so he needs #8 bluffs to be balanced. Paul most likely summed up all potential bluffs roughly to #80 -> he needs to bluff 10% of all his potential bluffs.
      "Spiele nl100/200/500 Zoom agressives Konzept"
    • painlezz wrote:

      The math is easy. Lets say he has #16 value combos on the river, so he needs #8 bluffs to be balanced. Paul most likely summed up all potential bluffs roughly to #80 -> he needs to bluff 10% of all his potential bluffs.
      Ahhh, right! :)

      Wow, in that case... It looks like it actually is quite easy to OVERBLUFF if anything :O

      But yeah, thanks for the explanation! This now makes all the sense - you don't need to bluff ONE HAND AND NEVER THE OTHER, if in the end all you need is the correct frequency! Is there a way to somehow come up with these numbers ingame - 'i have x potential bluff hands in the spot, that equals x amount of combos, but since i can bluff only this much given how my value range is constructed, it should be on such frequency' ? There still should be some kind of hands' prefferance, to make sure the frequency is not way unbalanced? Like here, given all this info and potential bluffs for vilain + tendencies, now i would actually be snapping river all day every day :D
    • Well, the thing is that the potential bluffs like J5cc and J9 and AJ don't often raise turn. I think most of the time people just call or fold, don't even consider raising. And then even if he did raise the turn, he can still decide to check back river.

      While in a small pot, maybe think of check-check turn, and OOP bets river line, 10% of potential bluffs bluffing will almost certainly be bluffing, in a huge pot with turn raise, you might see less than 10% of potential bluffs bluffing for sure.

      Like if you have AT, and you call flop, face the 2barrel, would you consider bluff raising?
    • Hmmm.... Gotta agree it's not that clear... At the same time i guess that's what makes a spot difficult - it being close :)

      lnternet wrote:

      Like if you have AT, and you call flop, face the 2barrel, would you consider bluff raising?
      Most of the time probably not. At the same time i think MOST of my turned straights will be raised (of course, would want to leave a combo or two for the river street), therefore i want to have some bluffs in my range too - you already laid out what those pretty much look like. I don't mind using AT at some frequency as it blocks AA/AK AND JT most importantly and also combos without clubs seems like a sexy river jams on blank cards as well.