Turn Bet - Big Mistake?

    • Turn Bet - Big Mistake?

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $97.57 (195.1 bb)
      BB: $57.09 (114.2 bb)
      MP: $64.12 (128.2 bb)
      CO: $20.60 (41.2 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :kh :qh
      MP folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, SB folds, BB calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75

      Flop: ($7) :2h :as :jc (3 players)
      BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB calls $3.75, CO folds

      Turn: ($14.50) :3h (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $8.25, BB raises to $28, Hero calls $19.75

      River: ($70.50) :5d (2 players)
      BB bets $23.09 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Linecheck??? First of all, want to say that i don't like my turn call at all - vs x/r i'm getting 28% pot odds, but vs the potential range i'm facing i have 22% equity (screenshot below) and so i would need villain to have potential bluffs, which i don't really see..



      1) Initial question - is the turn bet bad, or does villain have potential folding hands still?
      2) are there any bluffs that villain plays like this on the turn??? I guess not and even if there where, i think then i would rather 3bet jam the turn actually... :D

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • 1) I think BB should start folding most Jx and weaker Ax against your bet. Also you still have alot of value hands here, so you also need some bluffs to balance them (except if you think villain calls too much). I think betting your hand here is fine.

      2) I would guess he would have to turn some Jx into bluff, I dont think this playerpool does this, I think it is just a fold, also the sizing is quite big.
    • chitz wrote:

      1) I think BB should start folding most Jx and weaker Ax against your bet. Also you still have alot of value hands here, so you also need some bluffs to balance them (except if you think villain calls too much). I think betting your hand here is fine.

      2) I would guess he would have to turn some Jx into bluff, I dont think this playerpool does this, I think it is just a fold, also the sizing is quite big.
      1) practically nobody folds Ax here

      I don’t like your bet at all, this is just a good example for getting punished :)

      2) Multiway I see close to 0 bluffs here
      "Spiele nl100/200/500 Zoom agressives Konzept"
    • painlezz wrote:

      1) practically nobody folds Ax here
      Have to agree with painz;

      chitz wrote:

      Also you still have alot of value hands here, so you also need some bluffs to balance them
      That was pretty much my reasoning for a bet [I ACTUALLY WONDER WHEN THIS THING ACTUALLY APPLIES, CAN IT EVER BE A ONLY(?) REASON TO JUSTIFY A BET???] but even you yourself later explained why it might not be good and i think it's true;

      painlezz wrote:

      I don’t like your bet at all, this is just a good example for getting punished
    • Not disagreeing with you, but looking purely from the EV point of view, if we don't get folds and can even be denied of our equity (happened here, my turn call was clearly -EV) it's just not profitable to bet with bluff combos.

      I think in theory we need to have a balanced betting range (that includes both value and bluffs) to make sure our value-bets are getting called because, if we didn't had no bluffs, villain could fold everything up to the hands that actually beats our value and so, even though our bluffs shouldn't be generating EV in themselves (should be 0EV bets), they make our value-bets' EV higher, as they are getting called more often. That's why i think that pure, balanced GTO strategy might not be maxEV here IF our value-bets are getting action regardless of us not actually having bluffs in our betting range <--- as we already established, my bet is bad because it's not getting folds, which means we're getting called most often.

      Unless there's some kind of long term profit, that would affect our EV in a single hand, which i don't think there is (at least significant), because of the rarity of particularly similar spots (being multi-way, similar positions, opponents), while i'm skeptical of possibility to develop strong reads that would transfer to HU spots as well (for example, a regular picking up on our betting tendencies).
    • Flop can go either way.

      If you bet I'd go smaller. Ax/Jx/gutshot won't fold anyway, and random hands fold anyway, so no reason to bet more than $2.50

      Turn can go either way. Reasons for checking: you are crushed by Axhh and you beat some worse gutshots. Reasons for betting: He will fold 2x, 3x, Jx, maybe some Ax, and worse gutshots.
      Turn size anything goes. Large with AK is thin when 54 hits, but possible. Normal size is fine. Small size is fine.

      When he raises it's a close call. Yes, 28% odds with 22% equity, but you play the river better than him - if you hit you get extra $, if you miss you don't give him extra $. I express this concept as realization factor, here you might have more than 1, but given so little $ is left maybe just 1.2. Then multiply 22% equity by 1.2 realization and you get 26.4% realized equity, which is really close to 28%. Just give him a combo of J5s that's bluffing and you win on river K/Q with check-check and you have a turn call. (Take out Ah4h from your range, he shouldn't have that, but add 1 bluff combo.)
    • I think there is already an argument to be made regarding not betting the flop. Bet is okay IP of course, but it might be better to check back.

      Yeah, turn bet is probably quite bad, unless villain starts folding some Ax, which most of course don't. Another small point to make is that villain called pre flop a 4.5bb iso raise, so less likely to have weaker Ax that might fold turn like ATo or A7s. And villain shouldn't have any off suit Jx besides AJo. I mean, KJo is not a clear call pre flop, I'd probably call, but some villains might not.

      Vs the raise, call is probably a bit too loose, but not the end of the world, since you should win the rest of his stack everytime you hit river, so realization is a little bit above 1.