JJ 3bp SBvMP

    • I also prefer betting JJ QQ instead of KK+.
      Not sure about the sizing, but i think betting bigger is better, bc his calling range will almost stay the same no matter if u bet 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3.

      Against his raising range i have no clue atm (sitting here somewhere in a shop). If we get raised, we are probably facing a polorized range of sets, T9 and as „bluffs“ very strong combodraws. Idk how we perform against this range. „We“ can check later the equities.

      Do u think that (good) villains will bluff wider in this spot with random hands (they actually shouldnt have that much random hands, bc mp call3b range should be pretty tight), so that they also a have bet/fold range? Bc this flop hits there range so mich better.
      bei deinem mindset, wieso openst du solche hands wie 79s
    • Turn i dont like the check bc i dont want to give free cards with the opportunity of xback, so he can realize his equity.
      Also his range on the turn shouldnt be that strong after only calling the 1/3 bet on the flop. I assume he will raise all his nutty hands on the flop. So i think we always have the best hand on the turn and therefore we want to bet BIG on this monster drawheavy turn.
      bei deinem mindset, wieso openst du solche hands wie 79s
    • hard hitta wrote:


      Bc this flop hits there range so mich better.
      Can someone please explain this to me or correct me if what I am about to lay out is wrong, because I see people say this a lot on middling boards: "that it hits the caller so much harder or better." I think in a lot of cases it does, but I don't see it here. I know chief plays a 3b or fold strat from SB here, so he is 3betting a linear range here, with 2.5x open it will be slightly wider.

      So SB(hero) has TT, 99 and T9 for nutted combos, I think the only combos MP has over SB is 77 and in some cases Hero might 3b 77 as well, due to the smaller open. I doubt either has J8 or 86. SB(Hero) has JJ+, of which, MP, in most cases, only has JJ and maybe some QQ, but I think most QQ+ is getting 4b. SB(Hero) has ATs, KTs, QTs and JTs for top pair and MP has all those as well. I don't think either have any offsuit combos of those or any worse Tx. Both have KQs, KJs and QJs for straight draws. I don't think either have very much 8x other than some 98, 87s and 88. I don't think SB(Hero) would 3b A8s, but maybe, and I don't think MP should be calling it either due to the size of the 3b. I think SB(Hero) has slightly more nut flush draws in his range as I feel he will be 3betting AKs-AJs and has some of the A5s-A2s as well for the 2.5x open. MP won't have all AK, although he can certainly flat AK here. I don't think he will be calling the 3b with A5s-A2s,I think most would opt to use these as 4b bluffs, but some might c3 with them. I think both have the same broadway and suited connector flush draws and combo draws. Its possible that MP c3 a few more suited connectors than SB(Hero) is 3betting


      So, IMO, this is a board where SB(Hero) has some slight range advantage due to having more overpairs and possibly slightly more flush draws and the nut advantage is pretty even. Based on ranges I have, the equities are 52.9% for SB(Hero) and 47.1% for MP. I know we are OOP so it will be harder to realize, but just not seeing how this is a board that crushes the 3bet caller so much more than the 3better.


      I know this has nothing to do with the hand. I agree, that MP is probably raising most of his strong hands and combo draws on the flop, so I feel pretty good on turn and I would prob just bet my normal 22bb. I guess I would just be concerned about what to do on river. I think MP can have pretty much all flushdraws and back door flushdraws, as most of them are going to be nut flush draws or some sort of a combo draw. So there are not going to be very many good cards for us on the river and even on a blank, can we jam for value? On cards that complete the draws or overcards we can just x/f. For this reason, maybe chiefs x/j on turn is better, if we think that MP is going to bet often on turn when checked too. I would be concerned it would get checked back too often and IP can realize all their equity for free.
    • What @fawltyfelix said, but also have my own question about the initial flop cbet :

      chief wrote:

      I think flop bet is fine with JJ and maybe QQ. I'd check AA and KK
      I thought that we are pretty much always range-betting the flop for small size. This puts two questions in my head:
      1) Why HERO isn't betting KK-AA on the flop? Of course JJ-QQ need more protection, but those hands are still value-bets, especially given that it's not a single-raised, but rather a 3bet pot (so smaller SPR) and with not as wide ranges as compared with like SBvBU spot. What's the reasoning behind checking and what's the plan for the hand?
      2) If HERO isn't betting some portion of his range (or does he? My first question is about it) that means that on the flop he's not betting his entire range and in that case wouldn't it make more sense to be betting a more polarized range and therefore use bigger sizing???

      Hopefully you guys could clear it up, as always thank you very much for responses! :)
    • fawltyfelix wrote:

      I agree, that MP is probably raising most of his strong hands and combo draws on the flop, so I feel pretty good on turn and I would prob just bet my normal 22bb. I guess I would just be concerned about what to do on river. I think MP can have pretty much all flushdraws and back door flushdraws, as most of them are going to be nut flush draws or some sort of a combo draw. So there are not going to be very many good cards for us on the river and even on a blank, can we jam for value? On cards that complete the draws or overcards we can just x/f. For this reason, maybe chiefs x/j on turn is better, if we think that MP is going to bet often on turn when checked too. I would be concerned it would get checked back too often and IP can realize all their equity for free
      The X'th time re-reading the whole thing and i stumbled on this - i actually don't think that it's that bad to go for the turn check.

      Since you guys have established, that MP is probably raising most of his strong hands on the flop, we are still most likely ahead on the turn. One of the problems you had with betting the regular 22BB is that it would put you into weird spots on the river, that's where IMO checking helps us a bit:
      a) if we expect villain to stab some amount of the time, we can just x/j, like @chief did, that seems like the most attractive line to take;
      b) if villain does indeed check the turn back and river is a blank we most likely still have the best hand and can safely go for some value;
      c) if villain does indeed check the turn back and river is a card that completes draws, we can just x/f (as there's way less bluffs likely then, prob -EV bluffcatch) and we would save our potential 22BB turn bet.

      The only drawback i could see is that we don't get value from drawing hands, but those can actually stab vs our check (we x/j), o jam the turn vs our bet (which isn't too good for us either), so i don't think the effect here is too significant.

      Would love to hear more feedback on what you guys think, thank you for responses! :)
    • motiejus wrote:

      What @fawltyfelix said, but also have my own question about the initial flop cbet :

      chief wrote:

      I think flop bet is fine with JJ and maybe QQ. I'd check AA and KK
      I thought that we are pretty much always range-betting the flop for small size. This puts two questions in my head:1) Why HERO isn't betting KK-AA on the flop? Of course JJ-QQ need more protection, but those hands are still value-bets, especially given that it's not a single-raised, but rather a 3bet pot (so smaller SPR) and with not as wide ranges as compared with like SBvBU spot. What's the reasoning behind checking and what's the plan for the hand?
      2) If HERO isn't betting some portion of his range (or does he? My first question is about it) that means that on the flop he's not betting his entire range and in that case wouldn't it make more sense to be betting a more polarized range and therefore use bigger sizing???

      Hopefully you guys could clear it up, as always thank you very much for responses! :)
      This is a board where I am unsure and will check with solver after doing this text. This board does not seem particularly good for "bet everything 1/3" to me. It seems like a board where MP hits quite hard, and equities should become close comparing to pre flop (even if SB still has all sets).

      We can see it with a simple equity calc:

      pre flop equities:


      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 56.99% 55.60% 1.38% { 77+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AKo, AdQh, AhQc, AcQs }
      MP3 43.01% 41.63% 1.38% { JJ-66, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AdQc, AsQd, AcQh }



      Flop equities:


      Board: T:spade:9:heart:7:spade:
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 49.74% 47.84% 1.90% { 77+, ATs+, A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AKo, AdQh, AhQc, AcQs }
      MP3 50.26% 48.36% 1.90% { JJ-66, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AdQc, AsQd, AcQh }


      So just by this simple calc we can already guess this is not a board where SB is betting 75%+, even for 1/3.

      Actually, if i had to choose between bet 100% or check 100% it might make more sense to check 100%.

      So, that also probably means that SB will prefer a more polar betting with bigger size. I could be wrong.

      1) because we are checking a decent amount on this board and a hand like AA is a very good slowplay because it lets villain hit top pair on the turn and does not need as much protection. Plan will be to XC flop mostly and then XC or XR turn. If flop goes check check it might be a nice move to go for XR turn on most cards.
      2) probably yes, answered in the previous text.

      _______________

      Let's take a look at solver.

      SB flop strategy:































      (light red is 33% bet, heavy red is 75% bet)

      So this is not helpfull at all, SB just mixes all three options, but prefers the smaller sizing (40% checks).
      SB also skip XR 20%, no idea what does that mean, i guess it is to prevent MP from stabbing the whole range without worries.

      MP vs small bet plays in a very expected way, with the surprise being very few raises, only 5%.

      On the turn (5 double FD) one finding I think is pretty interesting is that SB now overbets all in (heavy red) 16% of range, which is a lot:





























      One thing that I already knew but might be good to point out is that MP checks back on the turn a lot of good draws, because those hands really hate to get check jammed and that's what SB should do if MP does bet them.

      In practice this solver exercise is not particularly useful, I guess if we start playing with nodelock we might find some interesting stuff.

      Anyways, things i take from this small exercise:
      - flop is whatever, everything is okay
      - on turn double FD it's okay and maybe even good to jam combo draws and hands that like to stack off turn but will have trouble on most rivers (T9s being the most obvious)
      - Explloitatively check jam on the turn might be amazing if we think MP will stab most draws.