SRP BUvSB @167bb 22: T32 J J -exploitive fold river?

    • SRP BUvSB @167bb 22: T32 J J -exploitive fold river?

      SB: $83.45 (166.9 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $62.11 (124.2 bb)
      MP: $60.63 (121.3 bb)
      CO: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $84.64 (169.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :2h :2s
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) :2d :ts :3c (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.09, SB raises to $5.75, Hero calls $4.66

      Turn: ($15) :js (2 players)
      SB bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50

      River: ($38) :jh (2 players)
      SB bets $64.70 and is all-in, Hero calls $64.70

      Villain is unknown, seems like a reg.

      I think it is pretty standard from Preflop to Turn. One could probably 3b Flop or raise Turn, but I think just calling and letting him bluff is fine.
      River I think solver would call this, but given his massive jam on the river I would never see a 50NL reg bluffing here and his hand is pretty obvious. Would you find a fold or is this a no brain call?
    • Crabs over ducks? :D

      As for villain's hand, TT/JJ are mandatory 3bets, don't think JTs x/raises the flop either, if he has it either, so you're pretty much beat by 33 only. For bluffs, normally i'd guess 45/56 and FDs are most likely, A4s/A5s are probably calls on the flop vs 1/3, however, the question is are those hands likely to x/r>b>ovb jam...? Running jacks shouldn't really hit HERO all that often at all IMO, so maybe could be a spot???

      As for HERO's decision:

      a) getting 38.6% odds, need to find 1 bluff for every 1.59 value combos - so you would need at least 5 bluff combos. I don't think random spades are likely (turn J :spade: is also somewhat relevant i guess, blocking J :spade: 9 :spade: /J :spade: 8 :spade: combos), so you'd need most of 45s/56s triple barrel it here like that...? Those hands can also easily just call the flop bet too, so that prob makes it less possible either... IDK can't see anything clear here.

      b) need to defend 37% of the range on the river (hope i got this right :D ). You will have 1xJJ/3xTT/6xJT(off/s - i suppose you're opening that 3x too)/3x33, so that's 12 combos already. With 33+ you have the hand that's pretty much always ahead and beats potential 22. If we think about folding all our overpairs (QQ-AA), that's 16 combos, but even with folding 22 (3 combos) that's still 19 combos with 12 remaining as the 38.7% (if we assume that's pretty much all of hero's range, which is not crazy IMO), so if that's all true you can (and prob should?) fold ?(

      But to be honest, don't think i would find a fold in-game either... ^^
    • motiejus wrote:

      Crabs over ducks? :D
      What else? already knew it, when he was jamming, but leveled myself into calling, because of that GTO-BS :D .

      I think you forget things like AsKs, and AJs, KQs, KJs, QJs with BDFD, which could get to river, which are in total #10 (hope I didn't miscount). That would give us #20 clear folds (Overpairs and Draws), some not so clear folds/calls: #6 Jx and #3 22 and 13# clear calls (33+). Total combo-count: #42, we have to defend 37%, that makes #15,5 hands that we have to defend. Thus we have to defend #2,5 out of our Jx and 22.
      I think 22 > Jx here, in terms of blocker. So folding isn't too bad here, according to minimum defense frequency.