NL16 - Pre Flop Hard

    • NL16 - Pre Flop Hard

      Hero (SB): $16 (100 bb)
      BB: $16 (100 bb)
      MP: $28.47 (177.9 bb)
      CO: $13.18 (82.4 bb)
      BTN: $16 (100 bb)


      Preflop: Hero is SB with :4h :4d
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.37, Hero raises to $1.44, BB folds, BTN raises to $3.36, Hero raises to $16 and is all-in

      Hi, guys. I have this hand and want your oppinion, please. This dude is a 29/25/12,6/f3b 49/4bet 4,9/RFI BU 50/f3bet BU 49/8,6K hands. My stats to know how he sees me: 26/20/7,6/3bet SBxBU 16/F4BET 56,3/10k Hands. I think my hand plays bad pos flop, I have fold equity pre and some equity if he calls. So, linecheck. Thanks.
    • I would think NL16 reg doesn't 4b enough here. So I would probably fold, but I think one can call the 4b with pocket pairs with a low frequency for set value.

      You could give villain a 4b range and a call5b range and work out under what conditions jamming with 44 is good/bad. In other words, how many bluffs must be in villains 4b range, to make your jam +EV? I think it is a nice and simple exercise, though it might take some time to work it out.
    • chitz wrote:

      You could give villain a 4b range and a call5b range and work out under what conditions jamming with 44 is good/bad
      OK. Let´s try. I Supose he 4bets 9% BUxSB (TT+, AQs+, AKo for value and the same 50 hands for bluff - that´s what I do). Let give him a little less bluffs, 40%. So 40% he folds and I win. The other 60%:

      MP2 32.55% { 4d4h }
      MP3 67.45% { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
      So I win 40% + 19% (32% of 60%) = 59%. Is it right? Thanks a lot.
    • What you did is just look at how often you will win by jamming. Problem is, that you don't account for potsize and losses.
      You have to calculate the EV of your jam. Then compare EV(jam) with EV(fold).

      Also it is better to give Villain an actual range, so you can account for card removal(this gets important for hands like A5s, not so much for 44). If you want to be extra precise you can also add in rake.
    • I really don´t know too much about this math but I´m going to try.
      If I fold: EV: $-1,44
      If I shove:
      If he folds: (40%) pot is $5,17: $+2,07
      If he calls: pot is $32, equity is 32,55/67,45: $10,42/$21,58: EV: $-11,16
      EV: -$9,09

      If you know any material where I can learn about this, please tell me.

      chitz wrote:

      Also it is better to give Villain an actual range, so you can account for card removal(this gets important for hands like A5s, not so much for 44)
      I did not understand what you mean. Sorry. I have for value 4bets BUxSB: TT+, AQs+, AKo and for bluff 4bets: A2-A9, K2-K9. It´s 50 value combos and 64 bluff combos that I use less of them or all of them depending on the villain. I put 40% of bluff hands for him.
      Thanks.
    • I think you messed up your calculation.
      Formula for EV:

      EV = -Investment + a*(Pot1*Win1%) + b*[b](Pot2*Win2%)

      Investment: is the amount you are betting/calling. If you already 3bet 9bb and now jam for 100bb your investment is 100bb-9bb = 91bb.
      Pot: is the total pot you are winning. This includes your bet!
      Win%: is a factor that tells us how often we win the pot
      a: is a factor that tells us how often outcome A occurs
      b: is a factor that tells us how often outcome B occurs, also a+b=1

      An immediate consequence of this is that EV(Fold) = 0 .

      So lets say A = villain is folding, B = villain is calling, then a = freq villain is folding; b = freq villain is calling.
      Then
      Pot1 = Pot without called 5b
      Pot2 = Pot with called 5b

      All you have to do now is plugging in the numbers and play around with them. Try to find for which numbers(/amount of 4b-bluffs) your jam is better/worse than folding.



      borabahêa wrote:

      chitz wrote:

      Also it is better to give Villain an actual range, so you can account for card removal(this gets important for hands like A5s, not so much for 44)
      I did not understand what you mean. Sorry. I have for value 4bets BUxSB: TT+, AQs+, AKo and for bluff 4bets: A2-A9, K2-K9. It´s 50 value combos and 64 bluff combos that I use less of them or all of them depending on the villain. I put 40% of bluff hands for him.Thanks.

      What I mean is blocker effect. If your hand is A5s you block an A, which reduces the amount of AA, AK hands in villains range. If you have 44 you don't block villains call5b range, but might block some bluffs like A4s. This is changing villains value/bluff - ratio. For bluff-jams this actually important to put into your calculations, because it can shift your move from slightly +EV to slighly -EV. Here is another another exercise you can do: find the amount of Bluffs where EV(jam)=0 without card removal and then compare with the results including card removal, using the same range.

      Also don't just put him on a bluffrange, find out how much he has to bluff, to make your jam with 44 +EV or at least EV=0. Then you can check with stats/experience if your player pool does that or not.

      The post was edited 1 time, last by chitz ().

    • 3rd line is correct, but then you plugged the wrong numbers into your calculator :D. It should be EV = -1,68bb

      So what I already told you is: find out how big villains bluff range has to be, to make your EV = 0. Thats the point where, you can start jamming your hand.

      Keep in mind that this calculation is still without rake (and card removal, which isn't too important here). Rake will approximately reduce your total EV by 1bb-2bb.
    • You should run the numbers in detail, for jamming all kinds of hands vs all kinds of sizes.

      But at NL16 I think you should be better off just playing an learning and having rules-of-thumb for spots like this.


      Rule of thumb for 5-bet bluff jamming is: You are break even around 50% fold to jam. If he folds to a jam 55% or more, you can jam all kinds of stuff profitably. If he folds to a jam 45% of less, you can't bluff jam anything. That's true in most cases and good enough for 99% of spots!