Getting Max Value W/ Nuts?

    • Getting Max Value W/ Nuts?

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $89.36 (178.7 bb)
      UTG: $23.29 (46.6 bb)
      MP: $82.09 (164.2 bb)
      Hero (CO): $92.75 (185.5 bb)
      BTN: $15.09 (30.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :ac :tc
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.25) :qc :8c :jc (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $1.01, MP calls $1.01

      Turn: ($5.27) :kh (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $7.50, MP raises to $16, Hero raises to $27.50, MP folds

      Linecheck??? How would you guys have played the hand and why? Villain shaping up to be a reg.

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • Flop I would just bet bigger, 3/4-pot. You get more value from Qx, KK-As, AK with club, Jx with club. Small bet works better against AK no club and a PP, but that is it.

      Turn, you really want to play for stacks so OB makes sense in general (although we are deep so it will be hard to do) . In practice also seems good, villain will have strong hands that don't fold and we dominate.

      Villain XR small, I dunno what is he doing but it does not look like a bluff at all. But he has almost zero flushes, and he can't really value raise anything else, so I guess he has to be turning something into a bluff. I guess we call the raise given this.
    • Flop is good.

      Turn doesn't really make sense to overbet, but it's fine i guess.
      His raise is actually not small, given the fact we do overbet.

      I really like the small raise, cause he might have some ATfd, KQfd or some type of this weird stuff.

      If he will not have those - just calling will be way better, as we pick up a river bluff really often, also we have easy jam on pretty much every single river.
    • Having almost all the high clubs on the board and in our hand, I like the small flop bet. Most likely he has AJ, AK, TT without a club, which might fold to a larger bet, but will surely call a small one while having ~0%.

      Turn overbet makes sense, hoping he just improved or he's stubborn.

      Turn raise from him is quite interesting. If he has a flush as well (maybe up to #4 K9, 97, 76, 65), slowplaying risks a river club (6 outs) or board pair (12 outs) that scares him. You might lose up to $64 of of value by slowplaying. Say on average you lose half the money left, $32 when one of those 17 outs hits, for 17/44 * $32 = $12

      If he is bluffing, slowplaying is gaining up to $64 extra by letting him bluff the river. He probably gives up a bluff at least half the time, and he probably just bets a non-allin amount when bluffing like $32. So let's say when you slowplay and he's bluffing you gain 50%*50%*$64 = $16


      Assuming there are only 2 cases:
      1) He has a flush and sometimes XF bad rivers but calls turn all-in
      2) He has a bluff, and sometimes bluffs rivers but fold to turn all-in

      1) +$12 for jamming per combo (up to #4)
      2) -$16 for jamming per combo

      Then you need him to have #3 combos of bluffs to make turn slowplay better than fastplay.

      I think that's a good estimate. If you think he has no bluffs, ship it. If you think he can have a few bluffs, just call.


      Couple of bonus thoughts
      • He might be bluffing with outs, like 2pair. I think that's unlikely but if so, jamming becomes better.
      • He might be folding to a turn jam with a low flush. I think that's unlikely but if so slowplaying becomes better.
      • I think you should jam turn, not min-3bet. Because min-3bet still kicks out his bluffs, but does give him the option to fold river with low flushes.
      • You have a good shot at hitting a royal flush. If your site has a bonus associated with that, you have extra EV for slowplay.
      • GTO-wise I don't think you 3bet turn much or at all, because it's a pretty locked down board. Ac and nuts just call and play river rather than making a balanced turn 3bet range. In part because his XR range is already most Ac/nuts, so you can't get value from that range when you have the nuts.
    • Thank you for feedback, guys!!! :)

      lnternet wrote:

      He might be bluffing with outs, like 2pair. I think that's unlikely but if so, jamming becomes better.

      He might be folding to a turn jam with a low flush. I think that's unlikely but if so slowplaying becomes better.

      I think you should jam turn, not min-3bet. Because min-3bet still kicks out his bluffs, but does give him the option to fold river with low flushes.
      I don't think that villain is completely airballing on the turn, that just seems suicidal to make such moves deep OOP aspecially with street(s) still left to play without equity. To be honest, even though we indeed have clubs blocked out, i still would think that villain isn't BLUFFING, like @poop_scoop mentioned, at the same time if villain takes this line with 2P or even a set, that's still a bluff, but with equity (in regards to the first bullet-point)...?

      Folding with a low flush as villain - my problem (question) here is stack depth - there's still 130BBs effective left AFTER villain's raise, i imagine myself in villain's shoes, i have a lower flush and face a 3bet jam after x/raising for this much more a) what can i even be up against that i still beat? b) Even if there's any possible way i'm (well, villain :D) NOT beat with lowish~ flush, it's a spot where i'm rather getting it in just before bad things happen (4th club/board-pair), but it's either ahead, but still not safe or completely DEAD with no equity to improve, which i would be mostly afraid of here;

      About 3bet-jamming the turn - even though T :club: 9 :club: would be the ultimate nuts, i fancy a 3bet jam with this combo more as then it's possible that villain has nut flushes in his range and those can't fold (even though then it doesn't matter any-way as villain is DEAD/i don't fear board pairs, villain might not have particularly the NUT flush and also be afraid of board pairs himself and therefore prob be more likely to stackoff), but when blocking both nut and straight flush myself, again i don't really see worse getting it in PARTICULARLY WHEN WE CONSIDER ANYTHING THAT"S NOT A FLUSH (from villain's perspective) A BLUFF, i mean, is it possible to make a bet/raise AS A BLUFF and then call it off facing further bets..? ?(

      Overall, well, i think villain does indeed have some 2P/sets/maybe even a AT straight himself, or something along those lines (even though it's weird line to take for those hands, but again, flushes are hardly blocked, not to mention lower flushes would prob be looking to bet the flop itself or x/r flop vs my 1/3, as the actual line for flushes just seem to miss value and since they must be lower than A high, they are still somewhat afraid of the board-pair or 4th club and therefore should play it faster?), but what are we calling those...? I don't think those combos would be stacking off vs turn 3bet jam as they are always(?) behind and can even be dead, that's why i decided to 3bet it small to make sure they still put some more money in the pot and hopefully end up putting some more on the river, although yeah, that's also optimistic :D

      Lots of thoughts, but could you please address em' in any way?

      Thank you! :)
    • What hands do you think he is raising on the turn? Like specific hands?



      motiejus wrote:

      I don't think that villain is completely airballing on the turn,
      Some club, like TTc, that doesn't like calling the overbet, seems logical to me. And maybe weak 2pair.

      motiejus wrote:

      Folding with a low flush as villain
      Surely possible. But if you have AcX here, would you 3bet bluff jam turn to fold out lower flushes? Seems like a ridic plan. People are very bad at folding good hands.

      motiejus wrote:

      i think villain does indeed have some 2P/sets/maybe even a AT straight himself,
      Raising AT or set is weird for sure. Against set you don't mind jamming though.
    • lnternet wrote:

      What hands do you think he is raising on the turn? Like specific hands?
      That's just a rough guess from me, but i'd say something like maybe AT straights (although no clubs in that hand possible) / K :club: Qx, K :club: Jx / possibly turned set...? Again, to be honest, i still don't have a good idea about the raising range, as i'm really possitive that we would've heard from weaker flushes before (by flop cbet or x/r vs my 1/3 bet) most of the time, not to mention that flushes are so hardly blocked, but anything weaker x/raising an overbet is like a wtf raise as well... If anything was even more confused in-game and therefore decided to click it back at the last sec to make sure i still get more value from worse as everything that has (pressumably) equity (so flushes, 2p, straights...) wouldn't fold for that price at this street and possibly would put even more money on the river. Edit : you mentioned T :club: Tx, but that's blocked here, so still, something like 9 :club: 9x would still fit the bill, right?

      lnternet wrote:

      Surely possible. But if you have AcX here, would you 3bet bluff jam turn to fold out lower flushes? Seems like a ridic plan. People are very bad at folding good hands.
      Hehehe.... Well, in general i don't think i have many A :club: X hands, especially ones that would play it this way (prob only AQo pre, AJo seems a bit too weak to flat COvMP), but in general to be honest, most likely i won't... After considering everything even still to say "oh well, maybe i should...?" seems too crazy or rather results oriented, but IDK, maybe i'm giving people too much credit with my thinking that they would actually get away from flushes here? What would be correct in general though - it still seems like a spot where lower flushes are either putting over 120BB into the pot DEAD, or putting that same amount hoping to dodge another club vs A :club: X type of hands which still have equity in a much much bigger pot then ?(

      lnternet wrote:

      Raising AT or set is weird for sure. Against set you don't mind jamming though
      That's a really good point - that would really make villain feel all my pain :D But in all seriousness, i haven't really ever explored this kind of size jamming plan, especially before the river, are there any general rules where that makes more sense to do so and also what about actually balancing such 'moves' ? Would we want to mix in A :club: x bluffs or is the play purely exploitative and we're not interested in (semi) bluffing this spot, particularly if we think that villain is likely to call us off, in which case my question is pretty much answered?

      T h a n k y o u ! :)