3bP BBvCO TPTK on flushed River

    • 3bP BBvCO TPTK on flushed River

      Party, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $114.58 (114.6 bb)
      Hero (BB): $248.98 (249 bb)
      UTG: $186.34 (186.3 bb)
      MP: $103.50 (103.5 bb)
      CO: $106.62 (106.6 bb)
      BTN: $110.49 (110.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with :ah :kc
      2 folds, CO raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11, CO calls $8

      Flop: ($22.50) :4h :9h :ks (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.05, CO calls $7.05

      Turn: ($36.60) :7c (2 players)
      Hero bets $23.29, CO calls $23.29

      River: ($83.18) :3h (2 players)
      Hero bets $65.28 and is all-in

      Pre, Flop and Turn are quite std.
      River card is not cool, but I still have the best blocker. Imo jamming is quite thin, since there are still some Sets and Flushes in villains range. But I think it is better than x/c, because villain will jam his sets+ and might not be able to find enough bluffs. x/f is too weak, I think. Maybe blockbet small (about 1/4 to 1/3)?
    • Normally would just play it the same and don't think about it too much (would also think pre/flop/turn pretty STD), but lets look at the river deeper:

      For value (better hands than yours) - on the river villain has approx 3x99/1-2x44/1x77/KhQh/KhJh/KhTh/QhJh/QhTh/JhTh - reasonable 12 combos.

      For potential bluffs if you check - i really don't see none, there are no busted draws, no FD gutshots will fold turn and i'm certain villain won't be turning pairs into bluffs on the river if you check, so as you mention x/c is bad because vs check-backs you do win either way while vs range that bets you're screwed.

      For worse hands that you get value from - TT/JJ with a heart are in tough spot, not sure are these 100% frequency calls on the river, but there are 6 combos of those and i'm not sure villain can defend enough with calling ONLY Kx+, so i'd randomly give it 3 combos here. Then there are worse Kx, but since those combos are only suited 1 of the 2 remaining suits are hearts which are rivered flush, so you're left only with KdTd/KdJd/KdQd, total about 6 combos of potential unhappy bluffcatchers from villain's perspective.

      Overall, about 6 combos of worse (bluffcatchers) vs about 12 combos of better - given this, i don't think think we have a value-bet on the river and if we start with a check, sounds crazy myself to say it, but isn't river a x/f spot???

      P.S. all the top of the range / blocker etc stuff is annoying, but i don't think we would be doing ourselves a dis-service by "overfolding" here, because as i wrote above, i just don't see many if any potential bluffs that villain would try getting us of our hand with...

      A bit off with my decisions lately, so maybe i'm missing something here as well, looking forward to hear more thoughts on the hand! :)
    • @motiejus excelent analysis!

      As a rule of thumb, in 3bp you can't do a 3rd barrel for value with anything that it isn't a flush once the flush hits. Even with a good blocker.

      We just check river. If villain jams we obviously have a bluffcatcher. A good bluffcatcher but just a bluffcatcher. For bluffs villain mat have some JTs/QJs but even that folds turn a lot. Seems like a quite reasonable XF to me, expecting actually to see a check-check and win a fair amount.