Decision To Call Turn Bet

    • Decision To Call Turn Bet

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      SB: $10.78 (21.6 bb)
      BB: $47.85 (95.7 bb)
      UTG: $66.23 (132.5 bb)
      MP: $78.64 (157.3 bb)
      Hero (CO): $234.23 (468.5 bb)
      BTN: $58.37 (116.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :td :ad
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, BB raises to $4, Hero calls $2.75

      Flop: ($8.25) :6h :jd :3d (2 players)
      BB bets $5.88, Hero calls $5.88

      Turn: ($20.01) :qc (2 players)
      BB bets $19.01, Hero calls $19.01

      River: ($58.03) :tc (2 players)
      BB bets $18.96 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Linecheck??? Pre-flop and flop play pretty STD. Turn is the street that's interesting for me - vs that almost pot-sized bet i'm getting 32.7% odds. I think all of my nut outs (FD and gutshot to broadway K) are live (12 outs - about 24% eq) and should realize a bit over 1 because not only BB is clearly commited to the pot after betting turn for that size, i'm IP so i can make sure money goes in, so i'd say like 1.2 x 24 = 28.8%, also, even though i doubt villain has any bluffs with this line (he's BB instead of SB 3betting pre, also seemed like a bit tighter/straightforward type of player, more importantly - post flop sizings), BUT i guess we still sometimes have A as an out vs KK or K :diamond: Q :diamond: type of hands and would win on river x/x, so that prob gives us like 4% more eq, which makes it, well around the B/E type of a call, if my estimations are around correct and so i have a few questions:

      1) If we have BE equity vs pot odds that we're getting - do we make that (turn) call?
      2) If 1) is yes, we call and hit A on the river, even with getting 19.7% odds, do we have a hero call on the river if villain jams??? I can see many value hands that villain could play this way and pretty much no natural bluffs, so it would suck, but guess fold - pretty clear option?
      3) If villain bets turn smaller - more clear call / if villain bets turn bigger - more clear fold, it's that simple here? :)

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • So I kind of simplified this, maybe too much, but I really don't believe that your A or T are good when you hit them. I think this goes check on riveralmost never, so i doubt you ever go x/x and somehow win against some random 3bet bluff that 2 barreled. I agree that your 12 outs are pretty live, although 6d and Qd could bring in some boats, but its pretty nominal.

      This is where maybe I am looking at this wrong, but if we believe that we will get all his remaining money on the river every time, then we can just add the remainder of his stack to the pot on the turn and see where we sit. I came up with 24.6% pot odds. So that puts you right on the edge of having a profitable call. I think the challenge is that you will not get the rest of his stack every time you hit one of your 12 outs. I think there will be times that he will find a check fold. It might be rare, but if it happens only 10% of the time then that pushes the pot odds up over 25% and you start running into a spot where you are barely break even maybe even losing. So I guess turn call hinges on how frequently you will get all of his stack, when you hit, and even when it is 100% of the time, it is essentially a BE call, so with the chance of him XF sometimes and very rare occasions that he boats up on a couple of the diamonds, maybe that pushes it towards being a fold on the turn.
    • fawltyfelix wrote:

      So I kind of simplified this, maybe too much, but I really don't believe that your A or T are good when you hit them. I think this goes check on riveralmost never, so i doubt you ever go x/x and somehow win against some random 3bet bluff that 2 barreled

      fawltyfelix wrote:

      I think the challenge is that you will not get the rest of his stack every time you hit one of your 12 outs. I think there will be times that he will find a check fold.
      Is it me, or does this sound a bit contradictory? ?( I agree that Tx is pretty much a dead out, but as for A, well ok, there might not be bluffs, but there probably are hands like K :diamond: Q :diamond: or any of the 6 KK combos that A would win at showdown against (we don't expect those to be jamming on river A, do we?) and if anything, since JJ/QQ/AA and AK/AQ (not that those should play it this way, but they would still beat us on turn and on river A) are partially blocked by board or our hand, thus making those combos mentioned above (K Q or any of the 6 KK) more likely overall, in other words, they have more weight in the range now, compared to those other value hands (JJ/QQ/AA and AK/AQ) had they not been blocked at all if we had something like 9 :diamond: 8 :diamond: instead of A :diamond: T :diamond: .

      That's not much, i don't even expect A river to even realize at 1, because vs jam we're screwed anyway and most likely should fold (while jamming river ourselves for super thin value if villain checks... IDK IDK, maybe???), but that still should bump our equity up a bit. What hands do you think villain would x/f on the river on K or a diamond anyways, given the SPR - i might not have them in mind right now, but i can't think of any honestly, but certainly not
      K :diamond: Q :diamond: or KK.

      That's might be me from dreamland, so please don't find this offensive in any way, i just do see both of these things happening :
      1) there are few particular hands that we would win against at least at showdown with our A as an out;
      2) at the same time, since we do hold A :diamond: , we can't hit a flush or a straight with an A (that would scare those same hands we would win at showdown against) and so we should also be getting the remaining stack, once we improve to the nuts too.

      I of course agree that sometimes board pairing would kill us too, but that's just 2 particular cards (6 :diamond: and Q :diamond: ), so i have no idea what kind of an impact this has to the overall equity.

      Again, please don't find my post rude or anything, this is indeed a close spot and that's why i'm posting it for feedback - i think one could even argue that the rake might be a deciding factor here (could it? :D ), so thank you for a response, maybe that could start some kind of a discussion, would of course love to hear other forum masterminds' opinions too!

      Thank you! :)
    • I didn't find it rude, all good. Like I said I simplified it a bit. I actually didn't think of how KK would react on an A river. So I think you are right about that. Not sure how much equity that gives us. 3 more outs for another 6% and then how often do we actually get to realize that 6% when he does in fact check. Even if you just said you only realized 1% out of the 6% that still puts you over 25% maybe even close to 26% which is maybe enough to justify the call

      I do think there are some hands that he could XF even though he doesn't have much of a stack left. I have seen it before, but its not likely that he would XF very many hands. Not sure if he is capable of folding AA or KK on a diamond river. Not sure if he would bet AQ like this. I think that could find a fold. I don't think he is folding any of his sets. Not sure if he would have any 2p like QJ or QT or JT and if he could fold those on straight or flush rivers. If he does it can change things for us. That was really my point there.

      Super close spot and I think in game I would make the same assumption, that when I hit my 12 outs I will get the rest of the money.

      Lets see what the pros say
    • If villain is indeed nitty and you expect him never to bluff with a worse draw there, then, as you guys showed, we have a close to a BE call and it doesn't really matter what you do (call or fold).

      Without a read I think we should always call because there is a chance (small but relevant) to win unimproved river. Also think the A is not a dead out as motie pointed out, we can XX win vs KK at least, i dunno about jamming the on the A, seems loose but with such a small stack left, maybe it's good.
    • Pot odds vs real equity and factor is good. I think chance of winning randomly, either on blanks vs T9 or by hitting the Ace are a bit higher than you estimated, so that it is a call. But nothing wrong with the methodology, all looks good.



      motiejus wrote:

      1) If we have BE equity vs pot odds that we're getting - do we make that (turn) call?
      Same EV, so doesn't matter. Maybe you like to have looser or tighter stats or get more rake points...

      motiejus wrote:

      2) If 1) is yes, we call and hit A on the river, even with getting 19.7% odds, do we have a hero call on the river if villain jams??? I can see many value hands that villain could play this way and pretty much no natural bluffs, so it would suck, but guess fold - pretty clear option?
      T9 and other FDs, tough spot. Not too clear to me, might have to write out his range

      motiejus wrote:

      3) If villain bets turn smaller - more clear call / if villain bets turn bigger - more clear fold, it's that simple here?
      Yes absolutely