Overpair In 3BP Linecheck

    • Overpair In 3BP Linecheck

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming, anonymous. HERO is BU with A :heart: A :club: , 100BBs effective.

      UT raises to 2.5BB
      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU HERO raises to 8.5BB
      SB folds
      BB folds
      UT calls.

      FLOP (18.5BB) : T :spade: 6 :club: 9 :heart: . UT checks, BU HERO checks.
      TURN (18.5BB) : 5 :heart: . UT checks, BU HERO bets 13BB, UT calls.
      RIVER (44.5BB) : 7 :club: . UT checks, BU HERO bets 25BB.

      Linecheck???

      Pre-flop - STD.
      Flop - in-game felt stronger about it, now not sure. Checking back is certainly +EV, but is it better than betting the flop...?
      Turn - clear value-bet at this point, don't think a small bet would make much sense, so went with a plan of two bigger bets for turn and most rivers.
      River - not the best card for me as it improves 77/88 and a couple of unlikely T8s 98s 76s combos, but it's not as big of UTs range compared with the rest of possible second-best hands, like Tx, JJ-QQ, maybe even KK at small frequency, so i assume that we should still have a value-bet, though probably can't go too big at this point. What do you guys think?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • Flop the check is a bit fancy play, you could just value bet. Letting dominated hands improve to a worse hand is not a big factor here because QJ/KQ don't fold to bet and we block AQ/AK.

      Turn your idea of betting big is good, you just didn't bet big enough :) . You should play for stacks! Just pot turn so you can jam safe rivers.

      As played, i doubt you can value bet now, 77 and 88 improves to better and JJ-QQ does not play this line too much.
    • poop_scoop wrote:

      Flop the check is a bit fancy play, you could just value bet. Letting dominated hands improve to a worse hand is not a big factor here because QJ/KQ don't fold to bet and we block AQ/AK.

      poop_scoop wrote:

      You should play for stacks! Just pot turn so you can jam safe rivers.
      Yes, agreed, flop is just a clear value-bet. One thing i'm unsure about is the board dynamic:
      1) As played, what river cards would we consider 'safe enough' to jam for value? IMO 6 and lower and obviously A, but what about 9 or T board pairs and J/Q/K, since we've established that on 7 or 8 it gets too thin?
      2) Since the flop is not as dry, what sizing plan would we prefer? I'm not sure if 3 street plan is best here, betting 1/3 flop seems too small..