Counterfit 2P Facing 3rd Barrel

    • Counterfit 2P Facing 3rd Barrel

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming, 5-handed, anonymous. HERO is BB with J :diamond: 6 :diamond: , 111.5BBs effective.

      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB raises to 3BB
      BB HERO calls.

      FLOP (6BB) K :club: 6 :club: K :heart: . SB bets 3BB, BB HERO calls.
      TURN (12BB) : J :heart: . SB bets 6.5BB, BB HERO calls.
      RIVER (25BB) : 7 :diamond: . SB bets 18.5BB, BB HERO...???


      Pre - STD.
      Flop - STD.
      Turn - STD.
      River - not sure what to do - villain's sizing plan is weird, as he half-pots flop and turn, but then bombs blank(?) river, though not sure is that more or less likely a bluff, but i would guess Kx would rather actually bet flop and turn bigger and could potentially allow BB to stab his missed draws on the river. HERO's actual hand can probably be used to bluff raise, blocking houses, though feels like strong enough bluffcatcher on it's own as it should beat all the possible missed draws like front club FD or all the possible BD gutshots, but are there enough / are they likely enough...?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • Pre, standard. 3-bet could be best if villain is folding too much to 3-bets.

      Flop, standard. Raise is possible, mainly for protection. Could be viable if opponent is betting too often and then playing straightforward vs raise. He will mainly call flop with better hands but also plenty of FDs and some floats. So playing further streets won't necessarily be that easy after raise line anyway. Call is good.

      Turn, standard. Villain could potentially value bet worse at this point, and bet hands just because they don't know what to do otherwise (especially at 50NL). Like 77-TT, A6 type. Any draw is also possible. His sizing is somewhat small. Not sure if we should read into it, that he is more likely to bet big with trips when there are two FDs out. Call. Your call likely removes a fair amount of Kx from your actual and perceived range.

      River, okay, he's not value betting worse anymore, at least not for that size. Now we are bluffcatching. With all draws having missed and you not blocking a single draw, I feel we have to call it as default. We get to the river with quite a wide range; any 6, many Jx, any FD, AT. This hand is a decent bluffcatcher, mainly because it unblocks his potential bluffs of which there are plenty. We auto fold all FDs and some pairs with worse blockers. Range-wise I think it's a call.

      Could we still fold river? Sure. If you think the population on average is not bluffing enough. But with two FDs missing and him betting oddly small on turn (which is a smaller point, and not necessarily accurate either) and us having a hand that is a pretty good bluffcatcher, I call.

      Bluff-raise with boat blockers? As a general rule of thumb, people don't fold strong hands. So trying to fold out three of a kind or better is ~never a good idea. Wouldn't recommend it.