3BP. Facing Delayed Overbet X/J

    • 3BP. Facing Delayed Overbet X/J

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming. HERO is UT with 9 :heart: 9 :diamond: , 121BBs effective. Villain - another good(?) MG regular.

      UT HERO raises to 3BB
      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB folds
      BB raises to 13BB
      UT HERO calls.

      FLOP (26.5BB) : 7 :spade: 5 :spade: T :heart: . BB checks, UT HERO checks.
      TURN (26.5BB) : 3 :heart: . BB checks, UT HERO bets 15BB, BB raises to 108 total and is all in, UT HERO...???


      Pre - Kinda big 3bet size by villain, but we are a bit deeper, so guess calling is still STD.
      Flop - not sure if i like my check, i think my hand is a pretty STD bet for a smallish size for protection/thin value, right?
      Turn - as played, IMO pretty clear bet at this point facing 2nd check from villain, the plan was to bet bigger and check back the river, but villain prevented that with a x/j. I'm getting 38.3% pot odds to call it off. It feels so much like AK or something, but not sure if i want to take a chance in a spot where i'm either dead to 2 outs or have better equity, but still not amazing (especially if facing AKs with FD), though how likely are overpairs to play in like that either???

      Putting 99 in equilab vs all possible combos of JJ+ / AK on that board, we do have about 36.3% equity, so if villain's range is indeed weighted towards AK it's probably a +EV call??? ?(

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • yeah.rocketscience wrote:

      whats your weakest Valuecombo on turn you will bet?
      I think i'm betting everything that's stronger than AK in my range (EXPECTING BBs stronger than AK hands - strong PPs, to cbet the flop OR AT LEAST the turn, once flop goes x/x), though as i said, not sure if i missed the bet for the same purposes on the flop already.

      I guess you might be going with the "fold weakest / continue with strongest part of the range" idea, but the thing is, without TT, which is the nuts, all the hands that i'm playing like this are in the same category, as bluffcatchers vs jam as they are either crushed by JJ+ (well, JJ do split with JJ, yet JJ block JJ and i'm not expecting BB to play TT this way, not to mention TT is still nuts on this board) while having better equity vs AK, which leans the decision in one side or the other depending on how villain's range is constructed, which i have no clear idea about.