SPR. Flopped T2 Going For Max Value?

    • SPR. Flopped T2 Going For Max Value?

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming, 5-handed. HERO is BB with A :heart: 6 :diamond: , 110BBs effective.

      UT folds
      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB raises to 3BB
      BB HERO calls.

      FLOP (6BB) : A :club: 6 :spade: 4 :diamond: . SB bets 1.5BB, BB HERO raises to 6BB, SB calls.
      TURN (18BB) : 4 :club: . SB checks, BB HERO bets 12.5BB, SB calls.
      RIVER (43BB) : 5 :club: . SB checks, BB HERO bets 30BB.

      Linecheck???

      Pre - STD.
      Flop - not sure what is villain going for with his 1/4 BSP OOP, but a clear raise for value for us.
      Turn - don't think there's much 4x in villain's range that plays it this way, there are 4 combos of A4 possible, but still IMO not as likely, all in all, still a clear bet for value IMO, sizing?
      River - BDF gets there, but as played i don't see villain having flushes either - 7 :club: 5 :club: is blocked, maybe 7 :club: 8 :club: or random 6 :club: X :club: , but that's about it. We still do have a clear value-bet vs worse possible Ax 2P (AA44x), right? But because there are a few better hands possible (like unlikely flush or A4) can't go too big, so my chosen 2/3 is about as much as we could go for?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • Not too sure, but I think you could size up turn and river. Especially on the River, villain doesn't have many boats and only some Flushes/straights. And I think he won't be able to raise Flushes/straights for value. He mainly has Ax hands that get into a tough spot with, since he has to catch with some of those. I would make it about pot size, maybe even bigger?
    • chitz wrote:

      villain doesn't have many boats and only some Flushes/straights. And I think he won't be able to raise Flushes/straights for value
      Hmmm.... i literally don't see villain having ANY kind of straight as only possible straights are 78/73/32 and out of those only 78 even makes sense, yet still only 7 :club: 8 :club: combo, as a naked gutshot with no SD is certainly not calling a flop raise and a turn bet OOP and that's flush on the river. As for flushes in particular, again IMO it's only 7 :club: 8 :club: and maybe something like 6 :club: 7 :club: and 6 :club: 8 :club: , so that's like 3 combos at most. But then there are houses, which again, don't think there are many, played like that, though it's the hardest hand strength type for me to exclude from villain's range as straights/flushes are almost non-existent, but some houses are and they will certainly raise IMO - 1xAA, 1x66, 1x44, 1x64s, 2x45s, 4xA4 - in total 10 house combos of which i'd guess up to 50% realistically possible/likely, so 5 combos of houses, which is still more than at most 3 combos of flushes.

      Yet again, of course targeting Ax, of which as you said some should be catching, especially ones with club blocker, but since it's possible for villain to have a better hand we have to chose such size that won't as big that villain can realistically defend only with better than HERO's 2P. In other words, it does look like a river bet/fold spot, so we probably can't go ANY BIGGER than pot...?

      Thank you! :)
    • Yeah kinda misread Turn and River :D , probably no straight in his range.

      River is a bet/fold, yes, that doesn't mean that we can't go big.
      Villain can't fold his Ax on the Turn right? Maybe A2 and A3 type of hands. But he still ends up with tons of A6-AK (all off suited included). You are only beat by 66 and A4 and AA, 8c7c which would take this line more often, but those aren't many combos. Maybe villain is a bit loose and has some 3c2c, KcQc and some random 4x. Haven't counted all those Ax hands we beat (which is hard to do anyway since we don't know how often they take this line) but imo he has to call alot of those against a pot bet, if he doesn't want to overfold too much.

      If you go with the exploitive "he doesn't call enough Ax vs a bigger size" then ofc going smaller is better, but that also means, that you should go crazy with weaker hands on the River.
    • chitz wrote:

      River is a bet/fold, yes, that doesn't mean that we can't go big.
      Villain can't fold his Ax on the Turn right? Maybe A2 and A3 type of hands. But he still ends up with tons of A6-AK (all off suited included). You are only beat by 66 and A4 and AA, 8c7c which would take this line more often, but those aren't many combos. Maybe villain is a bit loose and has some 3c2c, KcQc and some random 4x. Haven't counted all those Ax hands we beat (which is hard to do anyway since we don't know how often they take this line) but imo he has to call alot of those against a pot bet, if he doesn't want to overfold too much.

      If you go with the exploitive "he doesn't call enough Ax vs a bigger size" then ofc going smaller is better, but that also means, that you should go crazy with weaker hands on the River.
      Yes, what you wrote it does indeed make sense!!!

      Very broadly - villain does have a few combos of nutted hands, so we can't go nuts overbet jamming for value as villain's range is not COMPLETELY capped, but there are indeed MANY Ax combos, considering all the offsuit combos too. Of course, it's a matter of how many of those do indeed take such line, but overall we still should have a clear value-bet on the river, yes.

      The only thing i'm still trying to figure is what's the biggest size we could use that wouldn't still have "diminishing" effect, in other words:
      a) the size that won't let villain to fold most of his bluffcatchers and don't overfold (IMO villain can fold combos without club blocker, but it would be bad if he can fold even club including ones)
      b) the size that the loss in case we indeed run into a better hand would be as minimal as possible (of course we would be losing our river bet, that's not the reason to not bet enough for value, but rather the "commitment to the pot" part - if we bet say 1.5x pot and then get x/shoved on, we would be getting about 25/225 odds (11%), of course no one is ever bluffing there, but it still sucks)

      As you said, it might just be pot size, i'm just wondering how can / or if it's at all possible, to compute that :)
    • Probably the easiest way to find out would be putting this spot into a solver and try out which size is best :D .

      From a theoretical point of view we want to make those Ax hands indifferent between calling and folding, which means EV=0. This implies that on average our range has EV = pot per hand. So the only reason we want to bet big is to be able to bluff more hands. As you already said, villain is not completely capped, therfore there is also a downside to upsizing: villain has to defend less and gets more often a bigger payout with his nutted hands.
      Without solver you there are ways to compute it but even with very simple assumptions it is nothing one can calculate on the fly.

      I made a simple model for this spot, which assumes that our range is only A6+bluffs and villain does only call or fold (I think thats a good assumption, since villain shouldn't bluffraise that much, since we are not capped to A6):

      wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(1%2…(-x*5%2B35)+x+from+0+to+4

      I am a bit too lazy to post the derivation here, but I think the function is something you are able to come up with yourself. Also I am not sure if I made a mistake somewhere, but it looks good.


      Some explanation of the function:
      Value of the function is the EV of a bet depending on betsize x. (EV is not normalized, but that doesn't matter since we only care about the location of the maximum)
      Pot size = 1
      x is betsize in relation to the pot.
      First term is the amount of #Bluffs+#Value we bet, where I set Value=1. I.e this is the size of our range depending on the betsize.
      Second term is the represents villains range, here I set the amount of stronger hands = 5 and amount of bluffcatcher(indifferent hands) = 35. For this example potsize is max EV for our range. You can play with those two numbers and see which size is best for a given Villain Range.

      I hope it is somewhat clear what I am trying to say, if not ask :)
    • @chitz - wow, thank you! :)

      chitz wrote:

      Probably the easiest way to find out would be putting this spot into a solver and try out which size is best .
      How would you actually be exploring this spot with a solver? Start by allowing solver only 1 (1/4) bet size on the flop (?) >...> and what would you do once reached the river in the sim? Resolving the river a few times with different sizes to see which one has the highest EV? Putting bunch of sizes on the river for BB doesn't sound particularly correct... ?(

      A bit unhappy with the fact that you put in the work here, but i'm not completely understanding the whole thing, but:
      a) it's not your problem of course :D
      b) i still get the idea that the graph is a representation of how using too big size for our river bet we reach the point of the EV actually starting to drop and that we have to be aware of it to make sure not to actually 'value-own' ourselves, which i was asking about, right?
    • motiejus wrote:

      @chitz - wow, thank you! :)

      chitz wrote:

      Probably the easiest way to find out would be putting this spot into a solver and try out which size is best .
      How would you actually be exploring this spot with a solver? Start by allowing solver only 1 (1/4) bet size on the flop (?) >...> and what would you do once reached the river in the sim? Resolving the river a few times with different sizes to see which one has the highest EV? Putting bunch of sizes on the river for BB doesn't sound particularly correct... ?(

      You could ofc use a bunch of different River sizes and look see what is prefered as an overall strategy and what is prefered with your hand. Trying a bunch of different single sizes and look for max EV is also fine, kinda depends on what and how you want to learn from the solver.

      What exactly is unclear?
      b) Yes, your EV starts to drop with a big enough size and can even go negative (unless villain is completly capped, in this case there is no maximum, we should bet as much possible), I think thats quite intuitive. I think a nice thing you can get out of it is some intuition for river betsizing by playing with villains value/bluffcatcher-ratio. Other than that it is quite useless, since you will never be able to think about it during play.
    • chitz wrote:

      You could ofc use a bunch of different River sizes and look see what is prefered as an overall strategy and what is prefered with your hand. Trying a bunch of different single sizes and look for max EV is also fine, kinda depends on what and how you want to learn from the solver.
      So, in your opinion, what exactly does each of these two methods represent in particular, in other words, what would be your goal to understand be with each of them?

      chitz wrote:

      What exactly is unclear?
      Nah, all good, it's just me, not being too good at math, taking some time to understand / interpret stuff, but after another few looks i've explored the output formula and it does make sense, along with the graph (also, you wrote the variables you we're using so it's not like we're solving for something, rather just seeing how different inputs affect the whole picture, in this case how the value / bluffcatchers ratio affects the EV of different bet sizes we might use), it's just i won't be able to come up with such myself :D

      TY :)
    • Personally I like more sizes, since that is what I play on the river (even though I am not even close to being capable of playing like that, it gives me an idea about mixing stronger hands in a weaker line etc.). But those multi sizing solves can get quite messy, so sometimes it is good to simplify the game tree and use less sizes.
    • One thing worth mentioning is that even if villain had zero straights and almost zero flushes in his range, it still should affect our play in a sense that the river does hit some of Hero's bluffs, which means villain might be less inclined to hero call with Ax type hand. So exploitatively I wouldn't go crazy with sizing for thin value because I expect people to be less inclined to bluffcatch. Also, I think villain will have at least some combos of better hands, i count around 16 combos. So even if villain calls every combo of AK and AQ, we are still at 50% equity. So to me the river bet looks thin. That is why I would rather bomb the turn (potsize maybe OB) with the idea of checking a good amont of rivers.