3BP. Overpair as BC Facing Triple Barrel

    • 3BP. Overpair as BC Facing Triple Barrel

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming. HERO is CO with J :club: J :spade: , 220BBs effective. Villain - SB in the hand, a good microgaming regular, capable of going for thin value in spots where others won't.

      UT folds
      MP folds
      CO HERO raises to 2.5BB
      BU folds
      SB raises to 9.5BB
      BB folds
      CO HERO calls.

      FLOP (20BB) : 8 :heart: 7 :spade: 5 :club: . SB bets 15BB, CO HERO calls.
      TURN (50BB) : 2 :heart: . SB bets 31BB, CO HERO calls.
      RIVER (112BB) : 5 :diamond: . SB bets 50BB, CO HERO folds.


      Pre - STD.

      Flop - even for such deep stacks IMO villain's bet size is quite big, i mean, that's not a range-bet, right? Still pretty clear call IMO.

      Turn - again, calling pretty much our only option it seems...?

      River - Now looking back don't really like my fold as much, particularly given pot odds, though what kind of size is villain realistically making it with hands that beat me as well? What hands are likely to triple barrel bluff like that though - i certainly don't expect to see AK/AQ at all, wanted to say A5s, but that's trips on the river, so it's only SC stuff like T9s or JTs (hardly blocked by HERO) possible or i'm i missing any hands? What do you guys think about the hand in general?

      Thank you very much for responses! :)
    • dean wrote:

      Folding river means guy has no bluffs because this is around our strongest non-nut range. If you believe it's true then folding is good.
      No bluffs or not enough bluffs, according to pot odds? Agree that JJ is around the top of our non-nut range (QQ is probably there too, since we're so deep), but it's still a bluff-catcher in this spot...?

      I don't think that villain can never show up with a bluff here, but IMO it's really unlikely as potential bluff like A5s is now beating my hand, while i'm blocking potential J9s-JTs bluffs.

      As a quick calc i could see villain playing QQ+ and some 77/88/A5s this way for value, so like 22-24 combos and for bluffs IMO it's mostly stuff like T9s/J9s/JTs, which is somewhat blocked, i'd say around 6-7 combos possible, other hands like A highs really doesn't make sense to be betting the flop so big, etc... Pot odds are 23.5% which makes it around BE call, so 3.25 value combos to 1 bluff, which makes villain need around 6-7 combos of bluffs and so it's (pot odds) the only thing why i'm uncertain about the spot as vs bigger bet i'm just not good enough i think...

      Thank you!
    • People will show up with bluffs like Ax, KQ, QT type more often than not. One should 3bet way looser preflop if they know they will get folds from all bluffcatchers to 3barrel even in some spots. This can be easily one of them.

      On the other hand if you have a strong population feeling that a spot is underbluffed just fold JJ yes. But not sure about this board being one of them.