SRP. Play With Turned Flush?

    • SRP. Play With Turned Flush?

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 100NL 6-max on microgaming, anonymous. HERO is UT with T :heart: 8 :heart: , 100BBs effective.

      UT HERO raises to 3BB
      MP folds
      CO calls
      BU calls
      SB folds
      BB folds.

      FLOP (10.5BB) : J :heart: T :diamond: 5 :heart: . UT HERO checks, CO checks, BU bets 6.5BB, UT HERO calls, CO folds.
      TURN (23.5BB) : 3 :heart: . UT HERO checks, BU bets 16.3BB, UT HERO...?

      Linecheck???

      Flop - pretty STD x/c???

      Turn - since we have a hand that's very strong and most likely doesn't mind getting as much money in the pot as possible, nothing we do (except fold) is -EV, but how would you proceed here on the turn and why?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • Pre is a fold for me.
      Flop I would do the same, I don't think that we another option here.
      Turn I dont think we can raise, villains betting range should be polarized. He should have a good amount of better flushes in his betting range. I would just call here and look for a river call, even though I think River is underbluffed. Maybe I am too tight here and miss some value vs 55, JT and AhJx type of hands?
    • On the flop I think he should bet mostly Strong Draws and good TP+. Obviously you don't want to get money in with things like 7s6s, so polarized might be the wrong word? On the Turn I would expect alot of checkbacks with TP and 2P, since Hero is expected to call mainly with TP, Overpair and FD on the flop.
      I think BU Turn cbetting range should mainly be Flushes and Sets. As bluffs I think KQ with a heart seem like the most natural ones, also AQ with heart. I would guess you also have to mix in some non heart stuff, to have some bluffs on heart runouts, but most people probably won't do that.
    • poop_scoop wrote:

      Motie, make the case for raising turn. Talk about villain's possible range and how T8s flush interacts with that. And how villain's range look like once we re-raise turn
      For better hands than mine villain has A, K, Q and J high flushes, of which i could assign him AQ/A9/A7/A6/A4/A2 (6 combos) / KQ/K9~ mayyyybe (1-2 combos) / Q9~ maybe (0-1 combos) / J9 (1 combo), so total 8 better flush combos. For worse hands than mine there possibly are 97 76 and 64, three unlikely combos of which i would give villain 2 and then there are hands that @chitz mentioned like JTs / 55 / A :heart: Jx - i think AJo is non existent as i don't see how it, even IP can play a MW pot vs very strong UT and CO ranges profitably, but i could see TT flatting it as BU as well, so 2x JTs, 3x55, 3xTT (and 2 worse flush combos) - about 10 worse combos. As for potential bluffs for BU, he shouldn't really have naked A or K high FDs as hands that we might get outdrawn by, but he could have non-heart KQs n stuff that is dead vs us, so we don't mind keeping it in the pot.

      Overall 8 better combos vs which we are dead / about 9-10 worse combos, of which only JTs and sets do equity vs our hand, yet i'm not sure if JTs and sets are in fact betting that turn for a bigger size, maybe....???

      Vs better value we're screwed one way or the other, but, if we just call turn, the SPR on the river is about 1.5 (~55 in the pot with ~75 back), so don't think we're getting stacked by better if we don't force it ourselves.

      Vs worse - JTs, if it's betting turn, IMO is folding to a raise. Sets, if they are betting the turn in the first place are probably continuing vs a x/r if the size is not too big, but only putting in the rest on the river improved, otherwise seems like an annoying fold? It would suck for sets if i x/j turn, but by risking so much i should be losing A LOT vs better flushes, so sets only don't justify x/r the turn. Vs lower flushes we might get stacks in, but that's so few combos, that they probably don't have a significant enough factor to target them exclusively.

      SO, if we x/r the turn:
      a) we're getting stacked vs better (quite a few combos)
      b) we maybe get some additional value vs sets, but we also bloat the pot that sets win on the river improved or not lose any more unimproved
      c) lower flushes are so few to really have an impact here, if anything they would HATE to get x/r, so i'm not sure of the value there
      d) we're not getting any more money by random stuff that's folding.

      If we call turn:
      a) we most likely aren't getting stacked by better - if river comes another heart, if board pairs we probably have just a x/f river, if river bricks, most likely x/c
      b) sets, if they are even betting turn, maybe are also betting river, but that's optimistic, yet we don't LOSE much value anyways
      c) lower flushes i think are betting turn and river, so we don't really lose much, just probably not getting full double up
      d) we let villain bet his air one more time
    • dean wrote:

      What is your turn bluff range after skip XC this flop in MW pot?
      From what i've wrote above, i'm not even sure if x/raising is any good, but if we are forced to have a x/raising range on the turn, it seems like the main hand that is playing for value, given how many combos are there compared to worse ones is A high flush. With it we are winning vs everything else that possible at the moment (though sets and JTs have equity vs us), my bigger concern would be that with A high flushes (given our particular cards and cards on the board) we are blocking quite a lot of stuff that villain could hold that's worse flushes and if we assume that worse flushes would still bet turn and bet river we probably aren't losing much value by not raising our nut flushes... But if we indeed do x/r and need to have bluffs, the only ones that i would pick out, they must contain A :heart: as blocker to villain's flushes (the card that most combos would contain) and have equity if called to improve, so only 2 hands i can see fitting the discription are offsuit A :heart: Kx and A :heart: Qx.
    • motiejus wrote:

      poop_scoop wrote:

      Motie, make the case for raising turn. Talk about villain's possible range and how T8s flush interacts with that. And how villain's range look like once we re-raise turn
      For better hands than mine villain has A, K, Q and J high flushes, of which i could assign him AQ/A9/A7/A6/A4/A2 (6 combos) / KQ/K9~ mayyyybe (1-2 combos) / Q9~ maybe (0-1 combos) / J9 (1 combo), so total 8 better flush combos. For worse hands than mine there possibly are 97 76 and 64, three unlikely combos of which i would give villain 2 and then there are hands that @chitz mentioned like JTs / 55 / A :heart: Jx - i think AJo is non existent as i don't see how it, even IP can play a MW pot vs very strong UT and CO ranges profitably, but i could see TT flatting it as BU as well, so 2x JTs, 3x55, 3xTT (and 2 worse flush combos) - about 10 worse combos. As for potential bluffs for BU, he shouldn't really have naked A or K high FDs as hands that we might get outdrawn by, but he could have non-heart KQs n stuff that is dead vs us, so we don't mind keeping it in the pot.
      Overall 8 better combos vs which we are dead / about 9-10 worse combos, of which only JTs and sets do equity vs our hand, yet i'm not sure if JTs and sets are in fact betting that turn for a bigger size, maybe....???

      Vs better value we're screwed one way or the other, but, if we just call turn, the SPR on the river is about 1.5 (~55 in the pot with ~75 back), so don't think we're getting stacked by better if we don't force it ourselves.

      Vs worse - JTs, if it's betting turn, IMO is folding to a raise. Sets, if they are betting the turn in the first place are probably continuing vs a x/r if the size is not too big, but only putting in the rest on the river improved, otherwise seems like an annoying fold? It would suck for sets if i x/j turn, but by risking so much i should be losing A LOT vs better flushes, so sets only don't justify x/r the turn. Vs lower flushes we might get stacks in, but that's so few combos, that they probably don't have a significant enough factor to target them exclusively.

      SO, if we x/r the turn:
      a) we're getting stacked vs better (quite a few combos)
      b) we maybe get some additional value vs sets, but we also bloat the pot that sets win on the river improved or not lose any more unimproved
      c) lower flushes are so few to really have an impact here, if anything they would HATE to get x/r, so i'm not sure of the value there
      d) we're not getting any more money by random stuff that's folding.

      If we call turn:
      a) we most likely aren't getting stacked by better - if river comes another heart, if board pairs we probably have just a x/f river, if river bricks, most likely x/c
      b) sets, if they are even betting turn, maybe are also betting river, but that's optimistic, yet we don't LOSE much value anyways
      c) lower flushes i think are betting turn and river, so we don't really lose much, just probably not getting full double up
      d) we let villain bet his air one more time
      Very good. TT for villain is only 1 combo (you are blocking it), on the other hand i would give him JJ, so whatever. Also, it is very possible that BU checks back some sets on the turn after flush hits mw against tight ranges.

      So now that you went over it, you realize you simply cannot raise for value there, and you certainly cannot play for stacks.