SRP. TPNK Facing Triple Barrel BBvBU

    • SRP. TPNK Facing Triple Barrel BBvBU

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 100NL 6-max on microgaming, anonymous. HERO is BB with Q :spade: 9 :club: , 100BBs effective.

      UT folds
      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU raises to 2.5BB
      SB folds
      BB HERO calls.

      FLOP (5.5BB) : 3 :diamond: 2 :diamond: Q :heart: . BB HERO checks, BU bets 4BB, BB HERO calls.
      TURN (13.5BB) : 6 :spade: . BB HERO checks, BU bets 8BB, BB HERO calls.
      RIVER (29.5BB) : 7 :club: . BB HERO checks, BU bets 19.5BB, BB HERO...?

      Linecheck???

      Pre - STD.

      Flop - well, pretty obvious call with TP, nothing else makes much sense IMO.

      Turn - again don't see much reason to do anything else, but call.

      River - interesting spot here - looking at my own range i will have a few stronger hands like turned / rivered 2P, like Q6s or Q7s, but those are only suited combos (not sure if i can raise turn with Q6s for example), also can have Q2s, as Q3s seems like a flop x/r for the most part, also 6 :diamond: 7 :diamond: , but overall just a few stronger hands possible, let alone some will be x/raised before the river. I thought about Q4s/Q5s being a bit better catcher as it blocks 45 straight, but is that really relevant here? Not having diamonds is good, though i think it's absolutely possible to still see A :diamond: Q :diamond: or K :diamond: Q :diamond: going for 3 streets here still... What do you guys think about the hand and what would be the deciding factors for a decision on the river for you?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • In these sorts of boards and runouts where you have very few strong hands (no offsuit 2pair, no straights) you cannot fold TP to 3 barrel. It would be super super exploitative, which of course also means it would be super exploitable. In villain shoes, in these dry runouts, if you think people are considering folding TP to 2/3|2/3|2/3, then you should bluff river everytime with all busted diamonds and all A5/A4 if you have that.
    • Just did a quick sim, overall TP are folded about 25% of the time, most of those folds are Q9-QJ, lower and higher Kicker are almost always a call. This particular combination is only called 25%, rest fold. Also it seems like having :diamond: call, EV difference is very small though, about 0,5bb out of a 68,5bb pot, so that should be negligible for our ingame decision making.
      Considering poopys comment, maybe my pre ranges are off? Can someone else could sim this spot with his ranges and check?
    • chitz wrote:

      Just did a quick sim, overall TP are folded about 25% of the time
      Still, starting to fold only on the river, i assume?

      chitz wrote:

      most of those folds are Q9-QJ, lower and higher Kicker are almost always a call
      Hmm... Higher kicker is only KQo (AQ is 3bet pre for the most part), but i'm somewhat skeptical that it's because it beats weaker Qx that goes for value in a b/b/b line. Weaker kickers, some are 2P, so obvs calls, other than that, Q4-Q5, i guess they block straight, though i won't put 45o in BUs open range (if anything just a few procent weight), but as P said, A4-A5 are all 32 combos and so not blocking them can't be bad either. Pretty much only thing i'm going for here, i guess those Q9-QJ folds are due to specific segments in the ranges interacting / blockage (though not saying it's wrong :) )

      chitz wrote:

      Can someone else could sim this spot with his ranges and check?
      Will get back here with the results from my sim :)
    • poop_scoop wrote:

      In these sorts of boards and runouts where you have very few strong hands (no offsuit 2pair, no straights)
      @poop_scoop I was thinking, on dry boards and runouts, we usually have few 2 pairs but villain doesn´t have many draws too. So the relation value/bluff is bigger than on wet boards. Is it right? Because if it is, it ballances the boards. On wet, villain has more bluffs (more draws). On dry, we have less 2 pairs. Then we should call or fold with TP the same! ?(
    • It does not work that way, at least in theory. Because villain should have bluffs despite the board having less draws.

      It is easier to look at it from the value hands point of view: if no straights possible and few 2pair, then TP is a strong hand, either for value betting and for calling bets. If both players have let's say 32 combos of straights then it is easy to see that TP is medium weak hand, both for betting and calling.

      Exploitatively you may make the point that people do not triple barrel as a bluff on a dry board and therefore we should fold strong bluffcathers. Fine. But you have to realize that he also has few value combos.
    • poop_scoop wrote:

      It does not work that way, at least in theory. Because villain should have bluffs despite the board having less draws.

      It is easier to look at it from the value hands point of view: if no straights possible and few 2pair, then TP is a strong hand, either for value betting and for calling bets. If both players have let's say 32 combos of straights then it is easy to see that TP is medium weak hand, both for betting and calling.

      Exploitatively you may make the point that people do not triple barrel as a bluff on a dry board and therefore we should fold strong bluffcathers. Fine. But you have to realize that he also has few value combos.
      I completely agree with your statement, what was said above is fundamentally wrong. Much attention here should be paid especially to the second point.