3BP. SBvBB River Spot

    • 3BP. SBvBB River Spot

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 50NL 6-max on microgaming, anonymous. HERO is SB with A :heart: J :club: , 100BBs effective.

      UT folds
      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB HERO raises to 3BB
      BB raises to 9BB
      SB HERO calls.

      FLOP (18BB) : Q :heart: 8 :club: A :spade: . SB HERO checks, BB bets 6.5BB, SB HERO calls.
      TURN (31BB) : 6 :club: . SB HERO checks, BB bets 22BB, SB HERO calls.
      RIVER (75BB) : 5 :heart: . SB HERO checks, BB bets 62.5BB and is all in, SB HERO...?


      Pre, flop and turn seems pretty STD.

      River - on one hand it seems like a mandatory calldown, but wanted to inspect the spot a bit more - villain's value range is quite extensive here - AA, QQ, AK, certainly some AQ, maybe even rivered A5s or a random 97s. As for bluffs, my issue here is that it could be suited broadway combos that do 3bet pre and maybe some BD club combos which of both categories i'm blocking it significantly with J :club: , so is this a call on the river regardless, or can we make an exploitative fold...?

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • You have a bluffcatcher, you can always fold if you think your opponent is not bluffing enough. You can always dig a bit deeper in combo counting and calculate how many bluff combos villain's needs to show for you to have an ok call. Having the Jc certainly does not help. Anyways I think it's hard to say if villain will be bluffing enough or not, they are certainly possible natural bluffs, it depends a lot on what type of hands villain 3bets. I don't think i have a preference here for the action. You probably know better than me since you play the field, do you see people on anonymous 50nl bluffing of stacks on a regular basis? Or on the other hand you can't remember the last time some reg blasted off a stack? I would use that answer to decide.
    • My pot odds are 31.2%

      For value i assign villain around 15-16 value combos, so i would need him to have 1 bluff for every 2.2 value combos, which translates to around 7.3 bluff combos.

      As for natural bluffs, yeah, that's why i don't like holding J :club: as it's blocking J9s/JTs/KJs broadway combos, also BDFD.

      As for what's happening in the real world - no STRONG reads (anon table) about how the potential BB range is constructed, however, just looking at this particular board runout, this doesn't stike me as one that people would go nuts on. The regulars of microgaming are of course capable of b/b/j here as a bluff, but that doesn't happen nearly as often - the one that comes to mind that could take this line as a bluff (and regret it afterwards) is me.... And even i, had i been here on the river as BB with a hand that has no SDV, IDK if i would try jamming to get people of Ax - of course then we might go down the circle of

      - not bluffing, because nobody folds Ax
      - fold all Ax bluffcatchers because people are not bluffing to get Ax fold
      - bluff everything, because SB folds everything that's not actually beating BBs value....

      But yeah, don't think that's what's going on, though that's a guess still :)

      Thank you!
    • borabahêa wrote:

      Board: QhAs8c6c5h
      SB 56.67% 56.67% 0.00% { AhJc }
      BB 43.33% 43.33% 0.00% { AA, QQ, AQs, J9s+, T9s, T7s, 97s, 95s, 86s, 74s, 54s, 52s, AdKd, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, Jc8c, Jc7c, Tc6c, Qc5c, 7d5d, Qc4c, Qc3c, 7c3c, 5c3c, 4d3d, 6d2d, 4d2d, 3d2d, AQo, AhKd, AsKd, AsKh, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, KhQd }
      I'm not really sure about this - my pot odds are 31.25%, which means to make my worst bluffcatchers indifferent villain needs to have a 2.2 : 1 value to bluff ratio (not saying that AhJc is my worst bluffcatcher, though, as we said, having Jc is not very good), while here you have given villain total of 60 combos, so you're basically saying that those combos are 3betting pre and then all go bet/bet/jam post-flop and of those 60 combos, just 26 are value-bets (see the first image below, bottom left "resulting combinations"). That means that villain is bluffing with 34 combos, which correlates to 0.76 : 1 value to bluff ratio on the river and for that to ever be good villain should somehow give us 56.% pot odds, which is technically impossible as, if i'm correct, you can't ever give villain worse than 50% pot odds and so we have a crystal clear calldown with all of our bluffcatchers because for us to have a +EV call we should be winning more than 31.25%, while our bluffcatchers here would be winning the pot 1 in 1.76 times, so 56.8%

      Overall, i think you have assigned villain a very generous range, i really don't think big part of those hands would ever triple barrel like that, even lets say if ALL of them are being 3bet BBvSB MOST of the time. To Illustrate this a bit better, lets take an extremely weak bluffcatcher, like 98s (pretty much doesn't block value, except from 97s, while blocks bluffs like T9s and J9s), notice that (see the second image below) even that hand on the river has
      over 47%. Keeping in mind that we would need to have at least 31.25% to have a +EV call, the final, third image should make the point totally clear :D

      Image 1

      Image 2

      Image 3