NL10 - 3BP Straight Draw

    • NL10 - 3BP Straight Draw

      SB: $10.27 (102.7 bb)
      Hero (BB): $17.61 (176.1 bb)
      MP: $13.31 (133.1 bb)
      CO: $12.88 (128.8 bb)
      BTN: $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with :th :tc
      MP folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, CO calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.05) :ah :8c :jh (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.65, CO calls $0.65

      Turn: ($3.35) :9c (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.08, Hero ?(

      Hi,guys. Let´s forget the past and focus on the future. Do you cbet flop? What is the best option on the turn? Cbet, ch/fold, Ch/call, ch/raise or ch/shove? Villain is unknown. Thanks.
    • Pre - STD.

      Flop - i don't mind a simplified strategy of betting range on the flop, even though it's not a clear value bet spot by no means, for one by betting really small you force villain to continue as wide as possible, second, even though same can be said about QQ-KK (those at least have Jx beat), i don't really like flop x/c with your hand.

      Turn - there's no way that you have a value bet on the turn, your hand is way too weak for that, however, if you check only good scenario for you would be if villain checks back and allows you to realize your equity, other than that, vs a bet you're toast as there are so many good hands in villain's range by the turn that you can't profitably x/c, let alone x/j - this board should smash COs c3b range - you as BB do have AA that CO does not, but other than that you both have JJ and CO on the turn has straights in his range too, so i feel that on turn CO might even have an advantage in range, nuts (CO has all sets apart from AA and QTs) and even position.

      For those reasons i'm thinking of two scenarios of how to play the turn:

      a) check and hope that villain checks back and if he bets probably just x/f (unless he bets super small, which gives you the direct odds just to draw to the straight)
      b) bet the turn small again ourselves, this way you at least get a chance to realize your equity and if villain raises now, i'd say super easy fold. Only actual concern here for me would be how clean are your straight outs - i wanted to say if you bet small again and get called and river a straight you'd want to jam for value, however it would suck to hit a straight on diamond or heart and just run into the flush...

      Looking forward to hear others' thought too! :)
    • Flop 1/3 is fine. It's obviously solver style, in traditional poker it's a check (nothing better folds, too few weaker hands call)

      Turn is very tricky. He's getting uncapped with QT and a lot of 2pairs, so you don't really barrel AK/AQ here. On the other hand, 1) the amount of equity of bluffcatchers just jumped up with lots of pairs having extra outs and 2) the amount and equity of draws skyrocketed, which leads to thinner value betting and/or blocking and/or larger sizing. Meaning AK AQ are good barrels, possibly large barrels, possibly all-in barrels for 2x pot. [You are deeper here so this is clearly not an option]


      For simplicity I'd say he's uncapped so you play 100% check OOP. If you solve like this you will get very strong strategies that are ~unexploitable.


      But if you want to barrel some hands here, that's obviously fine. And if you do, ThTc is a great hand for it. It's kinda goes all ways: 1) Get called by draws and some T9 hands you beat 2) Fold out better Jx (and some A2-A6) 3) Block nuts and shoves 4) block draws = some +EV river jams when they hit.


      If you check turn it's clearly check/call up to normal size. Check/jam is bad. I mean if you think he bet/folds A7-A2, maybe AQ, maybe JT.. go for it. But usually people check behind the weak Ax and don't fold AQ once they bet it.

      2/3 turn from him you just call. For half pot clear call, for 2/3 a bit close but still think it's a call. Donk bet when you hit is an option; but that's for another thread.
    • lnternet wrote:

      If you check turn it's clearly check/call up to normal size.

      lnternet wrote:

      2/3 turn from him you just call. For half pot clear call, for 2/3 a bit close but still think it's a call
      That's so surprising for me :(

      We need 25-28% equity to continue vs 1/2-2/3 size turn bet, but do we actually have that for realized equity??? I would think that range that's betting into us on the turn have TT crushed - as you mentioned even hands as strong as up to weak(er) Ax can likely check back turn, or do we expect villain to betting pretty much all worse hands, even pairs like 8x 9x, so turning them into bluffs and likely give up with them on the river? It's not only the turn bet we have to call, but we can absolutely face a river bet as well, so we won't even reach showdown often, so even if we're somehow ahead on the turn, we won't be able to realize our equity since it's one more street left to play, OR does our equity mostly comes from actually improving to a straight? Even rivering a set we're screwed, also we can't be sure our straight outs on flush filling rivers are clean too...? Please explain the turn call after checking :(

      Thank you!!!

      EDIT: Yes BU can have some flush draws that we do win against (yet), but the bare FDs should be just a few combos of smaller suited connectors with (BD)FD, other combos should either be some kind of combo draw (and we block those hard) or pair+FD type of hands, which might not even be betting in the first place. It looks like we should be able to extract great deal of value in case we hit somehow, otherwise i still don't really understand turn x/c..

      On that same subject - significant amount of pairs in our range are sets, but how do we play the hands with similar hand strength like TT, so QQ-KK? For one, i do prefer TT just because i don't really see bare Jx betting the turn for 2/3 in BUs shoes (certainly not at high frequency) and so they essentially are the same strength, but TT should have more equity with an openender. Still, i also don't really like this particular combo as it blocks possible FDs that BU could hold, so maybe that could help us here - continue with combos that don't block FDs and fold those that do IF AGAIN FOLDING IS EVEN POSSIBLE ON THE TURN IN THE FIRST PLACE

      The post was edited 3 times, last by motiejus ().

    • chitz wrote:

      lnternet wrote:

      For simplicity I'd say he's uncapped so you play 100% check OOP. If you solve like this you will get very strong strategies that are ~unexploitable.
      Just wondering, how much EV are you willing to sacrifice for a (much) simpler strategy. Is there a good rule of thumb for that?

      For a single spot, you solve with the option removed and enabled (like here 2barreling enabled or removed) and compare the OOP full range EV.

      If the difference is 1% of the pot it's nothing, if it's 5% it's a good amount, if it's 10% it's too much.

      But strategy simplification isn't just about single spots, it's usually more broadly over a class of spots. There the answer is much harder.

      Also, just because you are using a simpler strategy, doesn't mean it loses money. Your opponent has no way of knowing you play 100% check in game, so he won't have as much EV as solver suggests.

      motiejus wrote:

      lnternet wrote:

      If you check turn it's clearly check/call up to normal size.

      lnternet wrote:

      2/3 turn from him you just call. For half pot clear call, for 2/3 a bit close but still think it's a call
      That's so surprising for me :(
      Ok, maybe it's too loose. I just think bluffcatcher + OESD has to call. But you are right, might not be enough bluffs.

      Maybe do a quick equity calc of TT vs 2pr+ and the draws without pairs? Don't think he bets many pair+draw or 9x 8x.