NL10 - Facing 3 Barrels

    • NL10 - Facing 3 Barrels

      SB: $27.96 (279.6 bb)
      BB: $11.53 (115.3 bb)
      Hero (MP): $10 (100 bb)
      CO: $11.37 (113.7 bb)
      BTN: $3.51 (35.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with :qc :kh
      Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BTN calls $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.95) :2d :3d :qs (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.10, BTN calls $0.10, BB raises to $0.71, Hero calls $0.61, BTN folds

      Turn: ($2.47) :5s (2 players)
      BB bets $1.77, Hero calls $1.77

      River: ($6.01) :2s (2 players)
      BB bets $4.50, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. Not a very different hand from another that is gone. Flop I tried to invite the fishy to raise but it did not work. Turn card was not so good but the river was. What do you think? Villain is a regular 26/22/12,8/aff 2,3/701 hands. Thanks.
    • Pre - good.

      Flop - i thought it was just a miss-click, apparently not :D Anyways, even though the fish BU is short, i don't really see what good the 1BB bet would accomplish - it has no fold equity so you won't be able to bluff and it gets no value / protection, so you allow both players to see the turn essentially for free with both drawing hands and worse made hands that could improve over your hand, so i don't really like it.

      Now, you can say that it may induce a spazzz from either player, but you can say that about any spot of this sort either vs fish or regulars, but you just don't know that - say you know that BU will stab with 100%, why not just x/r or something? As for BB regular, he might raise, but he probably does that with hands that could at least GII vs fish for value, other than that i would think it's reasonable for him to just cheaply draw with SDs, gutshots, FDs, oven random hands like A highs and what not, he's completing the action and can always make the pot bigger on later streets if he needs to. So, as i said if neither player raises then it's just not a good bet size.

      As played, well, calling seems STD, but i could get behind a decent size 3bet/j safe turns line, considering that the board is wet, you don't block neither of all the possible draws, while the range that's beating you should be really narrow - i don't think BB ever has Q3o or Q2o, so it's just 6 combos of sets and 1 combo of Q2s and Q3s each.

      Turn - calling should be STD, although again, had it not completed any possible straights, but still created another FD (so like 7 :spade: ) i wouldn't mind raising as well. Now it might be still possible, but i'd say too thin.

      River - at this point looks like a pot-odds based call :) Pot odds - 30%. We would need villain to have 1 or more bluff combos for every 2.33 value combos he has for us to have a +EV call.

      Interesting that villain sizes the turn and river for more like a 3/4th size bets and leaves money behind, i would think that a nutted hand would certainly try getting it all one way or the other, so let's keep it in mind.

      For value villain should still mainly have value combos from the flop, maybe a random Q :diamond: 5 :diamond: , or turned straight like A4 or 64, of which i'd give villain 3/4 suited and 2 combos of offsuit hands, to keep it at reasonable amount, given that some might fold pre (at least 64o) and also might not always raise flop too. So that's like 11 combos. Then 1xQ3s/Q2s from the flop, plus sets, which not are 4 combos - total 17 value combos.

      Given that we would need villain to have at least 7.3 (let's call it 7) combos of bluffs (or worse for value) - in a "normally" played spot ( :D ) i think it would be easier to assign villain a concrete range, but now it's a bit less defined - i can absolutely see villain possibly raising the flop with a variety of different hands, certainly not often, but just a wide selection of hands possible, including worse Qx for thinnish~ value, or even more likely - stuff like Q :diamond: X :diamond: . Because of that (and because villain didn't bet all of the money possible) i think i'd call the river hoping to be good enough at showdown.

      Looking forward to hearing others' thoughts too! :)
    • Those min bets vs fish work best in HU spots where you are IP. In mwp is not very good.

      My opinion is that BB would not raise with air once BU fish calls, there is a good chance that fish has something and won't fold, so I assume BB is honest here most of the time, so this is mostly a value raise, and that includes very thin value like Qx or even hands like 88, draws like FDs or SD like A5.

      Turn is a call, villain can still have worse Qx for value, and some bluffs of course.

      River we have a bluffcatcher I think, villain will not bet QJ. And we win against some diamonds, but overall people don't bluff away stacks. I'd fold. Also, when regs bet a weird non-all in size is mostly a betsize tell for value, not the other way around motie.
    • poop_scoop wrote:

      River we have a bluffcatcher I think, villain will not bet QJ. And we win against some diamonds, but overall people don't bluff away stacks. I'd fold. Also, when regs bet a weird non-all in size is mostly a betsize tell for value, not the other way around motie
      Are we calling the river with anything at all, apart from few combos of sets, that end up houses/quads? I thought that no diamond KQ is even better than AA, because villain shouldn't really have AQ, so it's essentially the same in strength, but KQ doesn't block FDs and block flopped Qx 2P combos, while AA does not, but blocks potential A4/A5.