NL10 - RCB/Shove

    • NL10 - RCB/Shove

      SB: $19.97 (199.7 bb)
      BB: $18.95 (189.5 bb)
      UTG: $11.97 (119.7 bb)
      Hero (MP): $32.49 (324.9 bb)
      CO: $10 (100 bb)
      BTN: $20.49 (204.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with :kc :ks
      UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95) :3d :9c :2h (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.02, UTG raises to $3.20, Hero calls $2.18

      Turn: ($8.35) :4s (2 players)
      UTG bets $7.87, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. Villain is unknown. Thanks.
    • chitz wrote:

      Would you like to share your thoughts here?
      Sure. I think we have a dry board and he doesn´t have so many draws, especially if we think about EP calling range against MP 3bet. In contrast, he should not have all sets here and very very rarely 2 pairs. The big questions are: does he call pre with AA or 65s? Could he play QQ, JJ like this? Does he raise 99 on this dry board? Without any information about the guy I think it´s a difficult spot.
    • Since your line is pretty standard there should be no question regarding it. This makes the Hand pretty easy to analyze.

      1) Think about how far up you are in your range estimate your weakest hand to defend vs good unknown player ( = how much do you have to defend, to not give villain autoprofit by jamming any2)
      2) Open equilab and give villain some ranges and try to find some ranges where the EV of calling with KK is 0. Then ask yourself if your villain is likely to play like this. If not, do you think his range is weaker or stronger? Adjust your decision based on that.
    • 1) I think on this board my best hands are the big overpairs like 12 combos of AA and KK and 4 combos of QQ (some QQ I call pre). I´m not sure if I can do this mathematical reasoning but I have 33% of pot odds so I have to call my best 67% hands (can I do this?). So it´s about 11 combos, 6 AA and 5 KK. We don´t have flush draws on board so I really don´t know how I can choose which KK I should fold. Maybe with a spade are the bests combos to call because they don´t block BDFD and BDST like a hand as AKs of diamonds, clubs or hearts. I´m not sure.
      2)

      chitz wrote:

      Open equilab and give villain some ranges and try to find some ranges where the EV of calling with KK is 0.
      Sorry, I´m not sure I understood. When we talk about hands he has 65s and A5s that we are dead but if we talk about ranges I can´t see a range only with these hands. So I think we always have some equity.

      chitz wrote:

      Then ask yourself if your villain is likely to play like this. If not, do you think his range is weaker or stronger? Adjust your decision based on that.
      I think you are trying to say that when villain has the nuts on this board he would not play like this because he wants to be paid. Right?
      I tried to Equilab. Can he have so many bluffs?

      Board: 3d2h9c4s
      Equity
      MP2 66.84% 66.84% 0.00% { 99, 33-22, AdAh, AdAs, A5s, 65s, 54s, 32s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ac4c, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c }
      MP3 33.16% 33.16% 0.00% { KsKc }
    • 1)
      On the Flop villain raises 3$ into a 3$ pot (including your bet) this means, if he does that with 0% Equity (a pure bluff), then his bluff would generate 0 EV, if you defend 50% of your range. if you defend less, then villain has can do this all the time with any2 and will take your money. To find more about this topic, google Minimum Defense Frequency(MDF).

      2)
      You assign a value range to villain, 99, 65s, A5s, JJ....
      Then you give him some bluffs and look how many hands he has to bluff, to make KK a good call vs his entire range.

      You can do this with different value ranges, just play around in equilab. Obviously you wanna be as realistic as possible, so giving villain hands like 92o is kinda dumb.

      When you did those things, you can ask yourself if villain overbluffs or underbluffs and come to a conclusion based on that.



      I can't tell you if the range for villain is good, I don't know him or your playerpool. But I think he doesnt have that much value hands in his range. You can't just give villain ALL the strong hands, you have to consider previous action.
    • Can't catch a break for some time now, so get to second guess some spots, but it's a snap GII > move on type of hand, or i'm i missing something here...?

      Villain's value range is super narrow here IMO, there are no 2P in UTs oppening, let alone c3b vs MPs 3bet ranges, same with A5s and 65s, i could give it total 1 combo of those. After that it's only 99 and AA that do beat you, but even if we think that villain has ALL of it pre (no AA 4bet, certainly not 100%) and plays ALL of it this way (again, certainly not 100%), there are total 9 combos of it, which, considering our pot odds (32.6%), means that we need just 4.5 combos of worse and there are 18 combos of TT-QQ to chose from, not even considering random AK or any other bluffing hand.

      Also, villain's line doesn't seem nutted, rather a some kind of vulnerable hand, looking to GII asap. Of course i could see both 99 and AA played like that from time to time (i'd guess AA even more frequently), but it might just be JJ-QQ type of hand, that after seeing the flop has decided that it won't fold and just looking to at least put AK in bad spot... Or IDK, once in a lifetime get KK to fold? :D

      Even vs worst case scenario of all KK-AA/99 and 1xA5s you almost get the odds to continue (pic below) if villain has just 4 combos of worse (in this case 4xQQ).

      Vs "more reasonable" 50% of only AA/99 just 2 combos of worse needed, IMO that's absolutely possible.

    • borabahêa wrote:

      Board: 3d2h9c4s
      Equity
      MP2 66.84% 66.84% 0.00% { 99, 33-22, AdAh, AdAs, A5s, 65s, 54s, 32s, 7d6d, 7h6h, 7c6c, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ac4c, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ac2c }
      MP3 33.16% 33.16% 0.00% { KsKc }
      In fact I gave him a wide range because he showed a peculiar hand...

      SB: $19.97 (199.7 bb)
      BB: $18.95 (189.5 bb)
      UTG: $11.97 (119.7 bb)
      Hero (MP): $32.49 (324.9 bb)
      CO: $10 (100 bb)
      BTN: $20.49 (204.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with :kc :ks
      UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95) :3d :9c :2h (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.02, UTG raises to $3.20, Hero calls $2.18

      Turn: ($8.35) :4s (2 players)
      UTG bets $7.87, Hero calls $7.87

      River: ($24.09) :jd (2 players)

      Results:
      Display Spoiler
      $24.09 pot ($1.08 rake)
      Final Board: :3d :9c :2h :4s :jd
      UTG showed :3c :2c and won $23.01 ($11.04 net)
      Hero showed :kc :ks and lost (-$11.97 net)
    • It's whatever now, you shouldn't go crazy with assumptions because one postle showed up with nonsense in a spot where ranges are really narrow.

      However you should do a few things after such showdown:

      1) clearly mark and note the guy ;
      2) if he's opening UT that wide and then calling 3bets vs MP no problem, you increase your 3/4bet sizings with value hands against him (if not you're just missing value) ;
      3) also you should 3bet (at least, i can't yet know what his own 3betting range does look like, so can't advise same for 4betting just yet) thinner hands, especially if you're in later positions which could assure you as few people are left to act behind and that you have position on the guy in case it goes post-flop ;
      4) you also could try to notice is he ever bluff raising post-flop too. If not - you give him credit in times he raises and you play accordingly vs his even more weak x/calling ranges.
    • I am not so sure this is a a call the guy Plays from utg vs a 3 bet oop. I mean he could deside to get Queens in but his line Looks super nutish.

      Maybe decend enough Chance random nl 10 fishes overplay some pairs Ace 9.. but often fish just stay passive with These medium good Hands. But if fold you have to fold flop Right away that doesnt feels good either. But Maybe Right People dont like to bluff in 3bet pot OOP. Sick he showed a 23 here, but has huge Suck out EV and hidden nut potential Maybe future Ev also true Maniac fish Image or Mongo Tilt your Opponent can also help. I some how like it. :D
    • Sorry, didn't want to sound offensive, but rather found your post funny :)

      rigged31 wrote:

      Maybe decend enough Chance random nl 10 fishes overplay some pairs Ace 9.. but often fish just stay passive with These medium good Hands. But if fold you have to fold flop Right away that doesnt feels good either. But Maybe Right People dont like to bluff in 3bet pot OOP.
      Well, we don't have no such info before the hand, so it's best (and just clear and obvious) to treat the opponent as if he was unknown (so for the most part a regular). Still we have no info of would he overplay, would he underplay, would he stay passive, that's just guesses and assumptions. I do agree that it's not as likely to face STONE COLD BLUFFS from OOP players in 3BPs, but it's reasonable to face pockets that are not nutted, but that would prefer to end the hand ASAP before overcard roll on future streets as they have decided that they are not folding anyway. About the "fold on the flop" part - we don't really 3bet 99 MPvUT, so it's pretty much one of our strongest hands possible, so if we're just folding that to a x/r on the flop we're essentially saying that villain has ZERO worse hands/bluffs in a spot where it's virtually impossible to even have better hands considering the board and preflop action, but if we're wrong villain can just attack us with any two and show massive profit because we would essentially be folding 100% of our range, so his cards wouldn't even matter, that's not a +EV approach IMO.

      rigged31 wrote:

      Sick he showed a 23 here, but has huge Suck out EV and hidden nut potential Maybe future Ev also true Maniac fish Image or Mongo Tilt your Opponent can also help. I some how like it.
      As far as i know, there's no such thing as "suck out EV" - you can basically say that about every hand possible, like, AA has huge suck out EV vs every other hand preflop :D

      Hidden nut potential / future EV - that can also pretty much be said about almost every hand preflop if we say that about 32s. But we can rather look at some metric that would help us identify the actual potential of a hand. Here i'm using just a basic MPvUT 3B range of KK+ and A5s and 0.5 AQo. As we can see 32s has just 26% equity, not to mention it's going to be really hard to realize it's equity since OOP vs strong range - 32s can't really be happy with pretty much either scenario, even if connected with the board - it only flops bottom pairs and very limited amount of draws, as it can't connect with any card that's higher than 6. It can only hope to flop at least 2P+ or a massive draw like 4 :club: 5 :club: X which is going to happen way too infrequent for it to be a +EV continue vs 3bet, let alone RFI from UT.



      rigged31 wrote:

      I am not so sure this is a a call the guy Plays from utg vs a 3 bet oop. I mean he could deside to get Queens in but his line Looks super nutish.
      Again, what i've said about villain having super profitable raise with any 2 if we give him credit every time he does something that won't be considered STD. First of all, villain again shouldn't really show up with almost anything that beats KK here realistically, maybe a combo or two of 99 and AA, that's virtually it. Say for example that you're in 3BP BBvBU, have KK on the same 932r flop and face a raise after you 1/3, there it's at least possible that villain has 33-22 or something, but we're still not folding KK there (because villain could try to protect A9s/TT, mix in some draws like 45s/A4s/A5s etc), but here MPvUT it's like the best possible board for our hand, so there's no way we can consider ever folding, we can only try to figure what's the best way to get the money in the pot, but here villain does the job for us, so as said, just GII and move on.

      @borabahêa and @rigged31 - what would you guys have done here with AA and why?
    • I don't end Up folding here very often neither with Kings at least not very often. But the Thing is still He is driving the Action oop in a 3 bet pot. Utg vs Mp and that doesnt make me Happy. :/

      Suckout Ev Like If you Beat Kings Here with 2-3 you might get Most Players from a to b or from b to c Game. And If Not what is allready unlikely for Most Players Chance is high they will after next pot they loose. :)