NL10 - Trips Facing Overbet River

    • NL10 - Trips Facing Overbet River

      SB: $9.05 (90.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
      UTG: $10.21 (102.1 bb)
      MP: $14.53 (145.3 bb)
      CO: $22.86 (228.6 bb)
      BTN: $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with :kc :7c
      4 folds, SB raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.40) :8c :9s :jc (2 players)
      SB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1) :7d (2 players)
      SB bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48

      River: ($1.96) :7s (2 players)
      SB bets $8.07 and is all-in, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. What do you think? Villain is unknown. Thanks!
    • rigged31 wrote:

      Do you call with a ten Here? Seems more interesting to me....
      Yeah that seems very interesting. My initial feeling was that we would have to defend some, theoretically. However, in practice, I am not so sure. It is 10NL so I feel like this is super nutted. So I wanted to kind of look at it.

      So from a theoretical standpoint if we follow MDF we can estimate how many combos we might get to the river with. I looked at some analysis I did a while back and kind of figure, with card removal, BB(hero) will have approximately #700 combos on the flop to defend. That mean versus a 75% PSB we need to defend around 57% of our combos or around #400. After card removal moving to turn I think we will have somewhere around #350-375 to defend on turn. Versus the 50% PSB on turn, we need to defend ~66% of that range or around #240 combos. After card removal we will have around 220-225 combos on the river. Versus the more than 4x overbet shove on river we have to defend less than 20% of our range, so I am going to just call it #40 combos.

      What do we have on the river? Fullhouses, QT? for nut straight, Tx for weaker, straight, trips like Hero has and prob some 2P and busted draws, maybe some Jx. I don't think we ever get to river with JJ. I think that would be 3b pre or raised at some point before river. I think same goes for 99. We could potentially flat pre, but I think it would get raised on flop. 88 we are more likely to have pre, but again might get raised on flop, but flatting could happen, so with these 3 hands I think we can have maybe 1 or 2 combos. I think we have both suited and offsuit combos of 97 and 87 and even J7 because it was only a 2x raise pre. So that gives us around 18 combos of those fullhouses plus maybe 1 or 2 of the other for around #20. So based on that, from a theoretical standpoint we need to find some defends with our Tx. I don't think we make it to the river with QT to be hones. I think that would raise flop or turn. So we would have to find some other Tx to defend

      So that is all theory based. However, I am not sure we would defend optimally on flop and turn and actually get to the river with those #200 combos. Would be interesting to do a solve or calldown to see what types of hands you would need to be defending on the flop to meet MDF. For me personally, when I am playing 10NL, and get 4x over-bet shoved on the river, I am not even feeling that good about my 87 and 97 FHs, but I would prob still call them all. I am pretty sure in practice, in game, I would fold a Ten here the vast majority of the time. Tx is just a bluff catcher. It doesn't beat anything that villain would do this for value with. So because of the size of the bet on the river, he would need to be bluffing with almost as many combos of bluffs as he has for value to make this call profitable. So like if he had #10 combos of value he was jamming he would need around 9 combos of bluffs. Just can't seen 10NL player having the right ratio of bluffs to value on the river to make a bluff catcher a good call.

      Curious to hear other thoughts and any corrections to my thought process above
    • fawltyfelix wrote:

      Oh I forgot the 1 combo of 77 for Quads
      Not sure that's possible considering HERO has K :club: 7 :club: ^^

      Pre - STD.

      Flop - thought about raising, since we dominate some of the possible draws, however, since bottom gut-shot out is very weak, not sure if that's best - IMO K :club: Q :club: , NDF and even K :club: T :club: should be much better hands to raise flop with. Calling is still absolutely fine with HERO's hand.

      Turn - 1/2 on such wet board (1-to a straight) seems weird as nuts would probably want to bet more, still there's so much more that's just beating 7x which makes you mostly have only the flush-draw equity, but vs 1/2 IMO that's again a standard call IP.

      River - villain with this line and the 4x river jam is not repping Tx and even QT doesn't feel consistent, while houses (1/2 turn with 2 pair or set) absolutely possible. This hand can't be a +EV call, because it even blocks busted FDs in a spot where no one at 10NL would show up with a worse hand, however, since villain is repping houses, i think that it's better to block those as much as possible, instead of calling with Tx for it's absolute strength.

      Have to disagree with myself a bit because i mentioned that 2 pair could be betting the turn, but what 2 pair does river a house? Only J7 97 87, but off-suit ones are probably folded pre-flop, those are pretty random flop+turn barrels and finally blocked hard by board and HERO's 7 :club: , so i would guess that in theory best catchers here would be J9 J8 98 hands with no clubs. In game hero would have 77, 99 that didn't 3bet pre, but is beating 88 and worse houses, then obviously 88 by the same token and then it's those 97 87 houses, of which there are total 12 combos and IDK.... i would probably calldown with all of them, but maybe it's best to at least fold ones with clubs and call with rest...?
    • motiejus wrote:

      fawltyfelix wrote:

      Oh I forgot the 1 combo of 77 for Quads
      Not sure that's possible considering HERO has K :club: 7 :club: ^^
      I meant from the analysis perspective of all the hands we could get to the river with. I was looking at whether or not we would call any Tx on the river and also in theory if we thinkg we technically need to call some to reach MDF

      But yeah you might be right, calling hands that block the J 9 or 8 might be better BCs than the Tx.