SRP. Overpair On Paired Board

    • SRP. Overpair On Paired Board

      Hello guys,

      have another hand that i wanted to share with you :)

      Playing regular 10NL 6-max on Party Poker, 5-handed. HERO is SB with K :heart: K :diamond: , 103BBs effective.

      MP folds
      CO folds
      BU folds
      SB HERO raises to 3BB
      BB calls.

      FLOP (6BB) : T :spade: 3 :heart: 4 :heart: . SB HERO bets 3.2BB, BB calls.
      TURN (12.4BB) : T :diamond: . SB HERO checks, BB checks.
      RIVER (12.4BB) : 9 :diamond: . SB HERO bets 6.5BB, BB raises to 18BB, SB HERO...???


      Pre - STD.

      Flop - i suppose it's whatever, so STD.

      Turn - Can't go for 3 streets on this turn card anymore. Not really sure if it's better to go into bluffcatching mode already (villain will deff bet better than KK, but will he go nuts betting worse himself once checked to?) or put in another bet for thinner value/protection vs weaker hands and draws? What size would we chose then, because we don't want to go too big where we would be value-owning ourselves, but also don't want to bet like 1/3 where even every gutshot would still have the odds to continue IP???

      River - as played, should deff be another bet for value with you hand after villain checks back turn (I mean, it's not like we expect villain to xb turn, but then go nuts bluffing river once checked to again???), but again, what size is best?

      Vs raise we're getting 11.5/48.4 = 23.7% odds to continue so need to be good just 1 in 4 times, but are we? I would think most people do bet their Tx on the turn, so it should be a very small amount of Tx if at all, 33/44 also, seems way too passive of a line, i could maybe believe T3s/T4s, but that's just 1 combo of each and certainly not 100% turn xb, most likely hand here seems to be 99, so overall i'd give villain like up to 10 combos of better than KK, so we would need just 2-3 combos of bluffs, but are those at all possible - to not stab the turn in a spot where i'm certainly capping my range by checking, but BB still has all of his Tx (before checking), but then raise the river when the board has ran out fully and no hand can improve anymore....? And just to be clear, i'm tired of leveling myself into thinking that villain might just have such logic (ahh, he checked turn, he must be capped and can't continue vs raise let alone to have strong hands), because they always are just playing their hand strength - raise strong hands, fold no SDV hands instead of bluffing...

      Thank you for responses! :)
    • pre flop good

      Flop bet is fine, size is whatever. This also a spot where you can go for XR, our hand is strong enough on this board (villain has almost no 2pair). If you bet, on blank turn is also a good spot for XR.

      On this turn you definitely cannot go for 3 streets of betting. I think I would rather bet turn than checking, because i expect some regs to check back some draws (because they know you are XC a fair amount here) and because they will be inclined to call losely with some A high, because again they might be in the mindset "you are not betting for value worse than Tx and therefore you are bluffing too much". But all this is debatable.

      As played, river we should have the nuts, we only lose to some 99 and some slowplay 33-44. Villain has some A highs, maybe some draws, maybe some weaker pair. Anyways, I don't expect too many bluffs after the check back turn, so I'd just potsize bet. As played, villain reps very little for value with the raise. Only 99 and maybe other sets. Despite this not being a bluff line at all I think I'd call.