NL25 - Overpair Against Fish

    • NL25 - Overpair Against Fish

      SB: $12.92 (51.7 bb)
      BB: $27.89 (111.6 bb)
      UTG: $21.75 (87 bb)
      MP: $31.72 (126.9 bb)
      CO: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $33.96 (135.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :ac :ah
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.55, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: ($1.20) :4s :2d :3c (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.25, BB raises to $1.35, Hero calls $1.10

      Turn: ($3.90) :7h (2 players)
      BB bets $2.48, Hero raises to $7.25, BB raises to $20.92, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. I bet very tiny on this flop because most of the time fishes have a big range and don´t hit this flop. Villain is a recreational player but I´m not sure what kind of fish he is. Stats: 37/26/13,9/94 hands. What do you think? Does he have many pairs like 88, 99 and draws like AX, 5X playing like this? Thanks.
    • Pre - vs fish deeper IP would make it as much as possible, unless dead reads that he's going to go crazy vs small(est) open sizes, if not, don't see a good reason to open less than 3BB.

      Flop - even if by betting less you force villain to continue wider (in theory), there's still a point of where you're just not getting enough value with you hand - i think that's the case here - could you tell the clear difference in villain's continuing range if you bet 44%, 33% or 20% ? If you want villain to catch up to 2nd best with whatever T9, QJ you can even check this back, but in general seems like a straight forward value-bet, while as for size i think i'd go with at least 1/2.

      Villain x/raises, so he's saying he has something better than 1P type of hand for value - i don't think he will have many if any pockets like 88-99 - of course 94 hands is nothing, but i'm certain that 14% 3B guy would 3bet those BBvBU especially vs min-raise. Other than that there are all sets (9), all at least suited 2P (6), i guess all 56 (16) and %50 of A5 (6), so quite a few hands possible. Villain also possibly raises some thinner value like 55-66, also maybe some air like 98, KT, AT etc.

      Turn - villain continues betting turn for 2/3 after x/raising turn - he should still retain all of his value combos, but prob lose some of 55-66 as those should probably bet less. You raise big - don't like it TBH - vs air that accomplishes nothing as you just force it out while drawing almost dead, while otherwise you just isolate yourself vs all the better hands and lose your position advantage and can't even realize your equity vs stuff that's not a straight already as vs sets and 2P you still have at least 6 outs.

      As played seems like a straight-forward fold - since villain has put most of his stack in, he's essentially commited so you should calculate your odds vs all of his stack i think, which equals to you needing to put in extra 18.74$ to win 55.9$ so your odds are 33%. Vs only better hands you have just 8% equity, so you need villain to at least also play stuff like 55-66, 54s, 75s, 76s this way in order just to BE