Facing 3 Barrels 3BP

    • Facing 3 Barrels 3BP

      Hero (SB): $69.06 (138.1 bb)
      BB: $62.19 (124.4 bb)
      CO: $53.87 (107.7 bb)
      BTN: $10.33 (20.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with :jc :as
      CO raises to $1.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $5, BB folds, CO calls $3.50

      Flop: ($10.50) :ac :4c :6c (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

      Turn: ($17.50) :5s (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $11.39, Hero calls $11.39

      River: ($40.28) :3h (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $33.98 and is all-in, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. Villain is unknown (21/17/7,1/44 hands). What do you think? Thanks.
    • Pre - SBvCO 3>10 AJo that's quite loose. Not exactly bad, of course you can mix it up, but don't think it will be making a lot of money. Don't quote me on this, but i personally would likely 3bet it in case of some specific dynamic, like CO opener is a fish, while BB is a regular, so vs CO fish it would be close to value 3bet, while at the same time forcing BB reg out of the pot, that has position on you is decent result. Vs good regulars only i would just fold it.

      Flop - not really sure - you can of course bet your hand 1/3, nothing wrong with that, however, since it's a COvSB spot, CO most likely doesn't have no worse offsuit hands with 1 club that could continue, which would make it a more clear value-bet on a monotone board, if it was SBvBU i would've liked 1/3 from you much more. Still, it's probably not a spot where you're happy to "trap" and expect CO to start bluffing like crazy either. Anyway x/c vs 1/3 looks just fine to me.

      Turn - The street that i'm mostly unsure about - mindlessly seems like a clear x/c, but if we look deeper - you get 28.3% odds, BUT vs an oriental range that should be betting, i'm not really if it's that obvious:

      Here i'm just looking at your hand's equity vs flushes (represented by 9c8c) and straights (represented by 8h7h) as pretty obvious value hands that would be betting flop, turn and likely jamming river on clean runouts too. So in order to make it a turn call, villain still needs to be betting something worse as well, but here's the problem - i don't really see no clear natural bluffs - 87s would've been one of them, but that hand has turned a straight, while other than that villain should be just air-balling, double barreling IDK KhTh or something which i don't really see happening. Still, i suppose we could maybe assign villain some random Ax going for 2 streets, looking to check-back the river, or one unlikely air-ball which would make it a close call, but it's already a nasty spot.

      River - now this seems like a really clear fold to me - first - pot odds - 31.4%, so this means that villain need to have 1 combo of bluffs for every 2.18 combos of value for you to have a BE call.

      Let's consider villain's value range, which i'd say is mainly flushes - considering blocking effects villain should have around 6 combos of flushes 8c7c/9c8c/Tc9c/QcTc/KcTc/KcQc. So you'd need villain to have at least 2.75 combos of bluffs, which i don't really see him having :

      1) just from my own experience, people aren't taking a random hand (again, take whatever KhTh for example) and going nuts, triple barreling it on a monotone board ;

      2) the only reasonable bluffing hand from the flop, i'd say is 87s, but that hand turns the straight and i do think it's strong enough to bet turn/jam river for value as there are realistically only 4 possible combos of flushes in HERO's shoes as SB (T9s/QTs/KTs/KQs) out of all the oriental 144 combos of hands (that's how much i have it, SB 3betting vs CO), so even though i haven't put it in originally, that IMO makes it even worse for you ;

      3) Even though as i said i don't expect people to show up with bluffs here (because there aren't really natural bluffs possible), if i had to get creative and come up with something, on the turn i could maybe see 77/88 with a club doing something, but again, on the river 77 is a straight as well, while for 88 i would still stand by my original comment that i don't see people bluffing enough if at all here AND EVEN IF villain did have something like that, that still makes it just a BE call at best for you (the spectrum of possibilities when you call the river jam is just from clearly bad, -EV play to BE at the very best).