zNL10 - Call or Fold River?

    • zNL10 - Call or Fold River?

      SB: $19.78 (197.8 bb)
      BB: $8.15 (81.5 bb)
      UTG: $45.17 (451.7 bb)
      MP: $34.49 (344.9 bb)
      CO: $11.74 (117.4 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $12.84 (128.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :js :as
      UTG raises to $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.65) :6s :jh :2c (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35

      Turn: ($1.35) :qc (2 players)
      UTG bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

      River: ($2.85) :4s (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.65, Hero ?(

      Hi, guys. Villain: 21/17/8,8/RFI EP 22/agg 2,5/cb OOP 49/4,1K hands. Thanks!
    • Pre - STD. Could 3bet or call.

      Flop - calling is fine, but you could also raise for value vs worse Jx and overcards. Hands like AQ/AK are in very bad shape vs your hand, but if they always bet/fold flop you have a profitable raise with almost any two, so villain can't really do it either. Having BDNFD also gives a bit more equity.

      Turn - at this point facing a second barrel raising might just be too thin, while folding is ultra nitty, so calling seems like the only clear play.

      River - gotta do some calculations now - pot odds - 1.65/6.15 = 26.8% ; you need villain to have at least 1 bluff combo for every 2.73 value combos to have a +EV call.

      Villain's value range is 3xAA/6xKK/3xQQ/1xJJ/1xQJs/3x66 = 17 combos. Villain could also have a hand like AQ or KQ, just cbetting the flop with overcards, turn TP and bet it two more times for 1/2 for value, i'd give him 75% of possible AQ combos for that, so 0.75 x 9 possible combos = 7 more combos, so orientally total 24 combos of value.

      For that you need villain to have at least 9 (8.8) combos of worse hands/bluffs in order to have a BE call.

      Here it's more like a judgement call if we think villain is bluffing enough, though for possible candidates there are quite a few hands possible - all AK is 12, KTs at least w BDFD 3 more, T9s same, random 87s that picked up a BDFD on turn, etc. If we think he can have KQ and AQ on the flop he can certaily have other combos bluffing - if we don't think he has those, then villain is left with initial 17 combos of value and now you need him to have at least 6+ combos of bluffs to have a +EV call.

      You can also look at it the other way around - how much you need to defend in order not to allow villain to have a +EV triple barrel with any two :

      - you don't have 22 pre, you might be 3betting JJ BUvUT 2.5x at least some amount, so don't have all 3 combos here either, 66 could raise flop or turn as well, so likely not all 3 are reaching the river, then there's 2xJQs of which again could raise turn or river and then just random AQ/KQs that are better than AJ - lets give all the strongest hands 50% weight, so 4 combos of nutted hands that will raise river and possibly KQs w BDFD calling flop (2 more combos) and some AQ (lets say 4 more combos), so that's total of 10 combos, that you defend river with - you have to look at the range that you started on the flop with, but IMO that's way too narrow range to defend enough - (pretty much you would be only continuing TP+ which you don't really have all that often at all) and AJ is the next best hand that you have, so just from that perspective IMO AJ is just way too strong to fold and therefore, unless some strong population/personal reads i think river would be a STD call.
    • There aren't many bluffs, like no offsuit hands. KTo not preflop open, AKo probably checks because of showdownvalue, so maybe ATo but maybe not. So you only see suited bluff hands, and it's not many. KTs, T9s, couple FDs. Might still be enough to call half pot though.

      I think the tight/solid regs just don't bluff river that much and I think you should fold, but call is fine, no worries.