zNL16 - 3 Barrel Bluff

    • zNL16 - 3 Barrel Bluff

      SB: $104.75 (654.7 bb)
      BB: $55.16 (344.8 bb)
      UTG: $11.51 (71.9 bb)
      MP: $10.14 (63.4 bb)
      CO: $34.10 (213.1 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $31.08 (194.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with :qc :ah
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.39, Hero raises to $1.92, 2 folds, CO calls $1.53

      Flop: ($4.08) :5h :3c :3d (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $1.95, CO calls $1.95

      Turn: ($7.98) :jc (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $5.94, CO calls $5.94

      River: ($19.86) :8h (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $21.27 and is all-in

      Hi, guys. What do you think? I don´t have the best combo to do, but... Villain is unknown (20/18/9/43 hands). Thanks.
    • Pre - 2.4 > 12 that's a really BIG 3bet size IP, even deeper IMO, i'd make it 10BB max.

      Flop - good texture for you - your value hands are very strong and should be able to b/b/j on clean runouts, which makes overcards also be able to bet aggressively as they still have a chance to improve to very strong hands on later streets. So overall, don't mind a bet at all.

      Turn - street i'm mostly unsure about - you get to still bet a lot, but should already try to pick out best hands for it - here i'd like a hand like A2s/A4s, 67s or BD clubs much more as they have much less SDV than AQ and you don't really want to bet all hands both on flop and on turn along with value as you'd be bluffing too much.

      Overall i don't hate a turn bet, but now you're making that your AK/AQ type hands would actually lose their remaining SDV vs range that continues against your bet, as if turn went x/x on clean rivers AK/AQ are much more likely to win on river x/x and also you could do some bluffcatching with best unpaired hands if you now that villain is active, so will defend flop enough, but then is aggro that will attack skips too, in case he gives you a decent price.

      River - as played now you certainly don't have no SDV, so only way to try to win the pot is to bet, but i don't really like it as much as considering your bet you give villain 34% odds to continue, but that means that if you have JJ+ for value (so total 21 value hands) you can only bluff with 1 combo for every 1.94 value combo you have which means that on river you can bluff with up to 11 combos or you would be overbluffing, which means +EV bluffcatch spot for villain.

      If we look at potential range that you could do this with AK - 16 combos, AQ - 16 combos, A2s/A4s - 8 more combos, add some more SCs like 67s T9s BDF etc and as you can see it's a spot where HERO is likely to have about 4x more bluffing candidates that he should actually bluff with, which makes villain incentivized to bluffcatch.

      Vs total nits that would overfold hard vs aggression i guess you can just buldoze through if they're defending only houses and AJs here, but i personally have fired away way too many stacks trying to get people to fold without understanding how they can be calling me down over and over, while finally a computation above made me realize how they are finding such "HERO" calls, as it's not that HEROIC, but just +EV if HERO is bluffing with everything and not selecting bluffs properly :)
    • You shouldn't bluff with hands that have EV as a check. AQ on the turn has showdown value, because you beat AT, maybe A4 A2, at the very least the same hand from him. So you should rather bluff KQ, which has about the same EV for a bluff, but less EV for a check-down.

      Otherwise good board for you too push through a lot, he has very few strong hands here, so good spot to bluff of a spot, just rather use weaker hands.

      (And preflop sizing is huge yeah what is that?)