AA SBmp 3bet pot

    • AA SBmp 3bet pot

      Villain's stats:
      24/18/7.5%
      open MP 19%
      fold to 3bet MP 46% (4bet range 2.7%, calls 3bet IP MP 53%)
      fold to cbet in 3bp 45/48/56
      WWSF 48%


      Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (SB): $200 (100 bb)
      BB: $200 (100 bb)
      UTG: $356.59 (178.3 bb)
      MP: $311.24 (155.6 bb)
      CO: $208.86 (104.4 bb)
      BTN: $241.10 (120.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $18, BB folds, MP calls $13

      Flop: ($38) 9 6 K (2 players)
      Hero bets $18.14, MP calls $18.14

      Turn: ($74.28) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $38, MP calls $38

      River: ($150.28) J (2 players)
      Hero ?



      Pre flop, flop and turn look standardish to me.

      I think river is quite bad for our hand, JJ gets there KJs gets there. Also not sure of how many combos of AK villain gets here with, probably all of them. Do you think we have a value shove? If not do you think he will bluff enough river for us to x/c?
    • How much sample do you have on those fold to cbet values? Looks like you need to triple barrel bluff any two.
      No way river is a value jam.

      He calls flop maybe JJ-99,AKs,KTs+,QJs,JTs,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,AKo
      He calls turn maybe 99,JdJh,JhJs,JhJc,TdTh,ThTs,ThTc,AKs,KJs+,AhQh,AhJh,QhJh,AhTh,KhTh,JhTh,AKo
      He calls off maybe 99,JdJh,JhJs,JhJc,KJs,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,QhJh,AhTh,KhTh,JhTh,AdKh,AhKd,AhKs,AhKc,AsKh,AcKh

      He can actually fold some AK on the river
      :ah :ac has 15% when called there. If he calls all AK it's at 35%.

      So def not a jam. Just check. I doubt he has enough to turn into a bluff, just XF.
    • lnternet wrote:

      How much sample do you have on those fold to cbet values? Looks like you need to triple barrel bluff any two.
      No way river is a value jam.

      He calls flop maybe JJ-99,AKs,KTs+,QJs,JTs,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,AKo
      He calls turn maybe 99,JdJh,JhJs,JhJc,TdTh,ThTs,ThTc,AKs,KJs+,AhQh,AhJh,QhJh,AhTh,KhTh,JhTh,AKo
      He calls off maybe 99,JdJh,JhJs,JhJc,KJs,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,QhJh,AhTh,KhTh,JhTh,AdKh,AhKd,AhKs,AhKc,AsKh,AcKh

      He can actually fold some AK on the river
      :ah :ac has 15% when called there. If he calls all AK it's at 35%.

      So def not a jam. Just check. I doubt he has enough to turn into a bluff, just XF.


      Hello, I think there is a mistake with ranges, because we have Ah, but at the end we still dont have enough equity for value shove.


      Best Regards.