[NL 2] Got bet into, have overpair. Whats the play on the flop?

    • [NL 2] Got bet into, have overpair. Whats the play on the flop?

      Hi everyone,

      I am posting this hand because I dont really know how I should be apprcoaching a situation like this. It happens quite frequently that players bet into the raisor in these games thou this SB is unkown player to me. Could somebody breakdown the decicion what to do here? Is it a raise, call or a fold and whats your reasoning?

      Myself I dont like to fold since the pot is quite big and I have a reasonable hand. Raising seems good because of FD is available. Calling doesnt feel good but it seems like a better option than just folding which Id really hate doing here. But feelings a side, how does one approach a spot like this?

      OnGame - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      MP: 126.5 BB
      CO: 188.5 BB
      Hero (BTN): 92.5 BB
      SB: 93 BB
      BB: 52 BB
      UTG: 99.5 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has :qc :qs

      UTG calls 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, SB calls 4.5 BB, BB calls 4 BB, UTG calls 4 BB, MP calls 4 BB

      Flop: (25 BB, 5 players) :7d :3d :jc
      SB bets 25 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero?
    • I would raise all-in.

      Generally when a player leads multi-way (especially with four or more players in the pot) they have a decently strong range, consisting of top pair or better for value, and strong draws. (There are no absolutes about this of course, but typically that is the case). They lead because they want value and protection with their strong hands, preventing the flop from checking around, and can also leverage their strong range with draws.

      It is also the case that as more players are in the pot, relative hand strengths go down. With more players in, it's more likely that someone has a very strong hand. And with more players in, the responsibility to defend against bets (to prevent bluffs from being profitable or too profitable) is shared among the players. With two players in this pot, either player has to call a flop bet with 7x, 88-TT under pretty much all circumstances - otherwise they would be folding way too much, allowing the bettor to bluff very profitably. But in a 5-way pot, 7x, 88-TT definitely doesn't need to defend against bets, and only strong draws and Jx are reasonable candidates to continue (depending on the bet size, their relative position, the relative position of the bettor, the bettor's tendencies, how many players are left to act behind them, and so on). (For this reason, any hand that wants to bet for value needs to be strong Jx or better).

      Although at the lowest of stakes, this kind of thought process doesn't necessarily take place before decisions are made. This player may look down at JT and think he he has a very strong hand (top pair!). Or that he needs to protect his hand and simply decides to go with it. Or he just sees top pair and clicks the pot and bet buttons in sequence without any thought whatsoever. So I would expect SB's range to be a fair amount of Jx hands, and potentially some stronger draws (flush draws or combo draws), as well as two pair or better.

      He leads pot and effectively commits himself to call it off with his range against most future action. So I would happily shove QQ here and expect to get called by the above mentioned range. (The decision would be somewhat tougher if you had players behind you left to act, since they could wake up with a stronger hand than yours, but now everyone has folded around to you which is nice). I don't like calling as much because stack sizes are already very small in relation to the pot. If you call the pot will be 75bb and you will have 62.5bb left to play with. Going to the turn with less than one pot size left you might as well just put it in. (Under certain circumstances it might be better to call in position even with so little left, but not in this specific case, in my opinion).
    • Call: This option is out of the question, because you are not looking forward to any good turn situations. The pot would be 75bb with 60bb or so behind. You couldn't fold if the J paired as villain may have a draw, you couldn't fold if a draw hit as villain may have a J.

      So you have a jam-or-fold decision.

      Folding is only good if SB has a better hand. That's 33, 77, and maybe J7s.
      Jamming is good if SB has a worse hand. That's not so clear, but likely a lot of diamond draws. A few AJ or KJ. A few silly hands (it's NL2 after all, maybe he will show up with 88)

      If he has a better hand, jamming is about a 70bb mistake
      If he has a worse hand, jamming wins about 30bb

      You need him to have a worse hand about 70% to get it all-in. That's your judgement to make.

      If he only on premium draws and sets, you have a fold. But as soon as you see just few AJ, Jx, and silly hands, it's a very easy all-in.