NL100: nut FD in 3bp 260bb deep?

    • NL100: nut FD in 3bp 260bb deep?

      IPoker No-Limit Hold'em, €1.00 BB (5 Spieler) - IPoker Converter Tool from de.flopturnriver.com


      BB (€40)
      UTG (€392.80)
      MP (€37.80)
      Hero (Button) (€260.51)
      SB (€100)


      Preflop: Hero ist Button mit K, A
      UTG raises €3, MP calls €3, Hero raises €12, 2 folds, UTG calls €9, 1 fold


      Flop: (€28.50) 9, 6, 9 (2 Spieler)
      UTG checks, Hero bets €14.25, UTG raises €39, Hero calls €24.75


      Turn: (€106.50) A (2 Spieler)
      UTG checks, Hero checks


      River: (€106.50) Q (2 Spieler)
      UTG bets €74.55, Hero folds

      Villain
      18/14 F2 3b 20% 282 hands
      - oR MP 25% (20)

      CO 60/29 fish

      Ok preflop looks fine, do you 3bet bigger, given the stacksize and the bad player IP?

      What is your line on the flop?
      I would 3bet preflop a more linear range, given his low F2 3bet stat and the fish, I guess my range would look like this:
      99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+

      I think betting 1/2 Ps is the std. line, with our 99+ and FDs.
      If we would play that way, we are obv. super capped after a check.
      I do think checking 100% makes a lot of sence as well, given that Villain has way more 9x, and 66 in his range, and we do not want to face x/r with every hand, besides 99.
      As played, I think we have an easy call on the flop.

      do you checkback on the turn?
      Villain can have 9x/66/ maby 87s/FDs and then random air, vs that range I do not see a big point in betting, since we do not
      have 2 streets of value and a x/r would be pretty horrible.

      As played we get 29% pot odds on the river.
      Vs this range we would have a call:


      Board: 9:diamond:6:diamond:9:heart: :ac :qc
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 30.77% 30.77% 0.00% { AdKd }
      MP3 69.23% 69.23% 0.00% { 99, 66, A9s, T9s, 98s, 87s }


      Is the fold to tight, Villain can def. exploit me, if I am folding this hand, but i am not shure if the NL100 reg ist bluffing in that spot?
    • I guess I was scared on the turn, to face a check/raise, but that is obv. not a valit argument :)
      Besides that I still like the check, and go with the things I said above:

      "Villain can have 9x/66/ maby 87s/FDs and then random air, vs that range I do not see a big point in betting, since we do not
      have 2 streets of value and a x/r would be pretty horrible."

      I do not think, that we have two valuebets and I do think, that checking the turn and betting the river if Villain checks is better.
      - We do not let Villain realise his equity by checking back
      - We play better vs Villains 9x hands
      - We play better vs Villains air

      Going with that I do agree with you and think folding there was a mistake.