100NL SR | 55 set OOP on river vs whale

    • 100NL SR | 55 set OOP on river vs whale

      $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $204.50 (204.5 bb)
      BB: $117.60 (117.6 bb)
      Hero (MP): $183.69 (183.7 bb)
      CO: $197.85 (197.9 bb)
      BTN: $488.24 (488.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 5 5
      Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, 3 folds

      Flop: ($7.50) 2 5 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.25, CO calls $5.25

      Turn: ($18) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $12.60, CO calls $12.60

      River: ($43.20) K (2 players)

      Villain is a true whale. Running 85/9 over 50-ish hands. I've seen him float pure air on a mono board then XR and bet river with turned second pair (T9 on Q52m T 6). Other stats that are relevant to this hand are WTSD 15%, River bet ~80% (don't have the sample but it was not 4/5, it was more occasions).

      Mostly interested in river play here.

      1. Larger on flop and turn?
      2. Bet or check/call river?

      My thoughts:

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      Flop seems like a clear bet to me as he will peel most hands and we want money in. Opening up for a raise is also a must. On the turn I need to bet for value and protection. Checking and giving a free card would be a disaster. If raised I'd call of course. Seems like the only possible line. Although maybe I should size up on both streets, especially on the turn, yeah. $16 maybe? Looking back I definitely loose value going 70% because he won't care whether I bet $12.6 or $16.

      As for river. On one hand I want to bet and hope that 8x calls. But on the other hand I don't really expect him to call the river too often given the low WTSD. (Sample is unreliable but I find that for these types of players it does converge pretty quickly. If it was 50%+ then he's much more likely to just click call with 8x.) He will have a huge amount of weak middling hands here and also missed draws. (Most flush draws really, especially As, Qs and those with draws to go, 9s, 6s, 4s, and so on. Then probably naked straight draws also like T9o, 6x, and so on).

      In-game I bet but looking back I feel like this might be a better XC for these reasons:

      - He has a huge amount of unpaired hands which won't call.
      - His weak pairs might not call given low WTSD.
      - All bluffs likely bet given high River bet. (And also random pairs possibly).
      - Kx or better still bets for value surely.

      In general we should value bet thinly against whales but against this specific type, this might be an exception and inducing might be the better play.


      I suppose we could also extend this to pre-flop if anyone feels like it. Since I'm 180bb deep with the whale and at a table full of large stacks maybe I should open larger pre-flop? 3.5x or 4x perhaps? And whether to open wider or not is also an interesting question in my opinion.