**Official Bitcoin & Altcoin Investment Thread**

    • I want to learn more about the blockchain technology . So far it looks promising and it is expected to take part in each aspect of digital world including poker .
      -As a poker player i would to be in touch with each new inovation , which can increase my earnings and the speed of my transactions .
      - It is an opportunity for investment or trading too , but for now i have not enough knowledge to do that .
      - A chance to create a fresh contacts with motivated people and sharing of ideas for the upcoming future .

      Experience , pretty much close to 0 .
      - Used the option to cashout and deposit in WPN clients with crytocurrency options . Much faster withdraws and less taxes .
    • Just my opinion, feel free to tell me what you think



      Since the flood of late 2017 has been lifting up all boats, all people in the space have made money, except maybe those who joined in the final 1-2 weeks of the price explosion in late December.

      When making money, it's intuitive to ask for the reason why. And the reason is generally attributed to oneself. You are a smart investor. Now since just about everyone made money, about everyone thinks they are smart investors. (When losing, on the other hand, it's always an external cause: because it's rigged / the markets are manipulated / something crazy happened which no one could have seen.)

      Now this newly found confidence of being a good investor leads to a lot of people giving investment advice; at least to themselves, often also to others. It takes the most outrageous forms. Essentially random people will state their advice full of confidence, examples:
      >> "It's faster than Bitcoin and doesn't need so much electricity, great project."
      >> "A programmer on YouTube reviewed their commits on github and says it's a good project"
      >> "The Telegram group is Full, the subreddit is exploding, big big project."

      Or my favorite
      >> "Once it's on the exchange the price will go 2x at least, buy now"

      There's also a lot of new technical analysis people out there. This generally boils down to looking at a chart, drawing some lines, and trying to predict the future price off those with higher accuracy than random. While there can be repeating trends in market's, and finding trends with TA is possible, most people who attempt this will invariably fail. (Similar to poker, perhaps, a starting hand chart makes you feel smart but you will still lose, mostly because of rake.)



      Now the people who make these claims don't understand how unsubstantiated they are. No one knows where this whole thing is going. No one knows where any individual project will be in 10 years. Sure, you can make assessments that are better than random, perhaps. But even if you are better than random, you just don't know. The number of hidden black swans in either direction, positive or negative, is in principle hidden from view.

      To see this more clearly, let's translate this into a longer established domain: picking companies/stocks. If you're friend posted on the forum:
      >> "Supply Chain of X is shorter than Y, so X is a great stock to buy"
      >> "An analyst on TV reviewed the company and says it's a snap buy"
      >> "Everybody loves Tesla, it's got massive appeal, buy some shares"

      I hope you realize how silly these sound. Estimating future cash flows better than the market is incredibly hard. Some people say it's not possible (Strong efficient market hypothesis). Almost all people agree it's at least very hard to do. If someone has a hot tip for you, all they got is a hot head. Do not listen to them.



      Alright, so we don't know how crypto will be in 10 year at all. And we have no idea which projects will go up or down in the short term; at least it's very hard to know. Let me make that slightly more clear, because I know some of you really disagree with this. Just because you spend 100 hours researching a project and filling numbers into an Excel sheet does not mean you have a reliable idea how that project will perform. You are simply fooling yourself. Unless you are one of the top boys, I'm talking Ivey League graduates with years of Wall Street training, or similar, your guess is just as good as random. (In fact generally worse than random due to observer bias [you don't see the whole, and the part you see is worse than the whole on average; it's statistics, you can't get around this effect]).

      You are fooling yourself if you think you know better. And every time you are correct in a prediction, either on chance or because of the "flood raises all boats" effect, you are just digging yourself a bigger hole of delusion that will be harder and harder to get out off.




      Now the bad news. Worse than knowing about this problem is that you can't escape it. Once you have made some profit, you are forced to do something with it (doing nothing, keeping it the same, is still an investment decision!). So you have to be an investor. But don't fool yourself to think you know what you're doing. You don't really.



      So what should you do? Let me know your thoughts.